Sunday, October 7, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Navy at Air Force & More

I don't know if you watched it, but Air Force beat the Holy Hell out of Navy yesterday out in Colorado Springs.  As Coach Jeff Monken would say, "It wasn't even sporting."  The Zoomies dropped a stone-cold beat-down.


Really, the game went about as we expected given Wednesday's preview, but even more so.  Much more.

The game's first quarter was some of the worst football I've ever seen.  As they were for most of the game, Navy was trapped in a nightmare version of the Malcolm Perry Show, with the Zoomies keying on Perry and hitting him repeatedly behind the line of scrimmage.  Perry either couldn't or wouldn't get the ball out to the rest of his playmakers, and that let Air Force attack him personally and thereby shut down the Squids' offense in its entirety.

Some fool is reading this and shaking his head.  It's true, though.  The problem really was Malcolm Perry.  He finished with 19 carries for 54 yards (2.8 yards/carry), including a ton of negative yardage plays.  FB Anthony Gargiulo finished with all of 4 (!) carries for 13 yards (3.3 yards/carry), while TEs Tre Walker and Nelson Smith, running mostly in the FB role, I think, finished with 6 carries collectively for 37 yards (6.1 yards/carry).  FBs Mike Martin and Nelson Smith struggled mightily, but even so, those guys collectively finished with 18 carries for 3.6 yards/carry.  That's not great, but it would've moved the chains consistently without the negative plays at quarterback.

Navy ran out of the shotgun a lot yesterday, but their O-Line wasn't getting any push, and for the most part, with the way they run the Dive, it wasn't hitting the hole fast enough.  The Zoomies were into the backfield a lot before the play had a chance to develop.  They got some decent pitches outside, but Perry cannot pass the ball, so really, they just did not have an answer for the Zoomies' D-Line.  They got behind the chains a lot, and that's why they lost.

On the other side, the Squids' defense did a decent job keeping the Zoomies in check for most of the first half.  The first quarter was literally just a long series of 3-and-outs for both squads, with the Mids slowly winning the field position battle.  That eventually gave Navy their only points, but they lost their starting middle linebacker to a targeting call late in the quarter, and their defense never recovered.  Once LB Taylor Heflin went out, we started seeing busts in Navy's pass coverage and mistakes in triple-option defense, and from there, the rout was on.

Air Force's new quarterback, Donald Hammond III, went 6/10 for 142 yards and a touchdown.  Nearly half of that came on a single busted-coverage play to WR Ronald Cleveland, who went 61 yards for the score.  Beyond that, Hammond did enough to keep the chains moving.  He carried 19 times for just 60 yards (3.2 yards/carry), but he did an excellent job distributing the football, and the Mids let RB Joseph Saucier get loose several times for long gainers off the option-pitch.  Saucier's long went 48 yards for a touchdown.  He finished with 3 carries for 62 yards (20.7 yards/carry).  

That's not a bad day at the office.


So this is how you lose: you let your quarterback get smoked behind the line of scrimmage repeatedly, have your starting middle linebacker tackle with his head down and get a targeting call, and then give up big yardage chunk plays on the outside.  Eventually, your defense loses heart, and you wind up 35-7 in a rivalry game that you badly needed.  That's what I saw.

It's no secret that I've not been a fan of the Malcolm Perry Show since its debut.  I'm still not.  If Navy starts QB Garrett Lewis and uses Perry as a slotback, I think they match Air Force's production--easily.  As it was, they tried to use their big-play threat to distribute the football, and that's just not been working.  Outside of one home game against Memphis, this Navy team has not performed as advertised.

Meanwhile, the takeaway for Army is about Air Force's D-Line.  Those guys are big and fast.  The Zoomies have given up a lot of yards passing this season, and Army has run on some teams (Hawaii) that the Mids couldn't much move, but still.  QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. will have to match Hammond's production in the passing game if Army wants to win.  Granted, Hopkins is gonna get more help from the rest of his offense than Malcolm Perry got.  Nevertheless, November's showdown in Michie Stadium may well be a game for the ages.

Army Football P(Wins) vs. 2018 Schedule: Bye Week
The good news for the Black Knights is that Hawaii and Buffalo both won their games in convincing fashion yesterday.  The Rainbow Warriors are now bowl eligible, and the Bulls still look to have the inside track on winning the MAC.  They destroyed Central Michigan, mostly on the ground.  That bodes well for Army's end-of-season ranking.

Miami (Ohio) also won yesterday.  That's a team that tends to start slow but pick up steam as the season progresses.  I don't know if they can finish fast enough to make it into the postseason, but they might.  Certainly, they'll come into Michie Stadium hungry to keep the turnaround going.

Eastern Michigan lost again, but what's amazing is that even at 2-4, they're still in plus territory on point differential.  Very surprising.  They must be the most under-performing team for their talent in all of college football.  Of note, Army's game in their building will be an absolute must-win for the Eagles.

Finally, Colgate remains unbeaten.  If you haven't noticed, Army's last home game is not a gimme.  The Black Knights will be facing one of the very best teams in all of FCS football.

* * *
Plot threads for the coming week:.

1.  Navy's season is in the toilet, and they have the hardest part of their schedule immediately on the horizon.  Temple, Houston, #6 Notre Dame, undefeated Cincinnati, and then #12 UCF.  Unless something unexpected happens, Navy's liable to be 4-7 heading into the Army-Navy game.

Wow.  The last time that happened, I think *I* was still a cadet.


2. Air Force has SDSU, UNLV, Boise State, and then Army.  They're 2-3 now and will probably be 3-5 when they hit Michie Stadium.  Maybe they shock the Aztecs, but that's not the way I would bet.  A Zoomie win would certainly help Army's strength-of-schedule rankings.  After Army, the Zoomies have New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State.

Bottom line, the Zoomies can still salvage their season despite their slow start.  That's worth watching.  I was very impressed with the way they played yesterday.


3.  Despite their record, San Jose State is a dangerous team for Army on the road.  The Spartans are big on their D-Line and very good against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards/carry.  They have a big-play offense, but an inconsistent one, and that's why they haven't won a game.

Assuming Army can move the ball against their front, I think the Black Knights have a serious advantage in terms of style-of-play.  But this will be an interesting test against another stout rushing defense.  Having seen Air Force's D-Line, the Black Knights need those kinds of tests heading into the November showdown.

That's all I've got.

Go Army!  Beat San Jose State!!!

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