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Wednesday, March 11, 2020

XFL: Offenses at the Halfway Mark

We’re five weeks into a ten-week XFL regular season, and despite the coronavirus outbreak and a predictable drop in TV ratings, America’s newest football league is off to a seemingly strong start.  We’re seeing regular mainstream media coverage, power rankings, podcasts, and -- after a slow offensive start -- an increasingly interesting product week-to-week.
Let’s discuss.



Offensive Evolution
By far the most interesting aspect of the XFL to me has been the evolution of play.  Commissioner Oliver Luck spent a lot of money bringing in both quarterbacks and coaches with NFL experience.  That hasn’t exactly panned out.  Five weeks into the inaugural season, and almost all of the NFL “perennial backup”-types have been benched for homegrown XFL young guns.  In fact, even the pro-style offenses have mostly been benched.  The XFL’s most successful teams to this point are the ones that made the switch first, starting XFL young guns in nominally “collegiate” offensive systems out of the gate.  Much of the rest of the league is still playing catch-up.
The Houston Roughnecks are the XFL’s best team, having started former Temple QB Phillip Walker from Week 1 in a variation of the Run-and-Shoot.  That’s the same offense Hawaii has run for the last two years, and I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the Rainbows have put up outstanding offensive numbers.  So have the Roughnecks.  Through five games, Walker has gone 119/184 passing (65%) for 1,338 yards and 15 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions.  He’s been the XFL’s best player by a mile, though it certainly helps that he’s been on the same team as WR Cam Phillips, the new league’s best receiver.

The St. Louis Battlehawks have been the XFL’s second-best team through this first half of the season, having started former Mississippi QB Jordan Ta’amu from Week 1 in a straight-up run-heavy Read-Option offense.  Ta’amu stands just 5’11”, 214 lbs -- which means he’s not big enough and doesn’t have the right skill set for the NFL -- but he’s got good speed and power running the football, and he’s got an excellent sense of when and how to run in the option.  On the season, he has just 41 carries (5.3 yards/carry), but as anyone who watches option football knows, a successful option running game sets up downfield passing like nothing else.  This is why Ta’amu leads the XFL in completion percentage.  He’s thrown just 134 passes, but he’s completed 97 of them (72%) for 1,050 yards and 5 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions.  
This from a guy that no one believed in before the season started.
The Battlehawks tend to start slowly on offense, but they pick up chunk yardage late in games.  This is not because they’re “getting a feel for the defense”.  It’s because it takes time for the option to work its magic on opposing defenders.  As guys get tired, that option rushing attack tends to pick up the pace, and with that, the Battlehawks have won their fair share of games.
The Read-Option has worked so well for the Battlehawks that seemingly half the teams in the league have now implemented some version of it.  This was most obvious from the Tampa Bay Vipers, who looked lost in the early going.  They somehow released former USF QB Quinten Flowers -- who, ironically, is perfect for this scheme -- and then retooled completely between Weeks 3 and 4 to suddenly become the most run-heavy team in the league.  Now they’ve got their former third stringer, Oklahoma State QB Taylor Cornelius, running an offense that’s actually ideal for Flowers, and yet they’ve also somehow got two of the league’s top three leading rushers while Cornelius himself is averaging 6.7 yards/carry.  Despite their improved offense, the Vipers stand just

The DC Defenders and Seattle Dragons have also implemented variations of the Read-Option.  DC did it just last week, subbing in former Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson for an increasingly ineffective Cardale Jones.  Not sure what that’s about, but the Defenders somehow beat St. Louis with Jackson under center, despite his going just 11/18 passing (61%) for all of 46 yards.  Granted Jackson had a touchdown; he also took 2 sacks in just 20 drop-backs.  Meanwhile, Seattle looked better on the road this week at Houston, but they still weren’t quite good enough.  They put up 32 carries collectively for exactly 100 yards, and QB B.J. Daniels went 14/22 passing (64%) for 114 yards in the new system, but that still works out to just 3.3 yards/carry on the ground and 5.2 yards/attempt through the air.  So yeah, they look better now that they’re relying less on WR Keenan Reynolds to move the chains, but that doesn’t mean they’ve actually good.

The XFL's Week 6 Schedule
And Then There Were Three
This leaves us with New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas.  New York and LA are still running their original pro-style offensive concepts with varying degrees of success.  Dallas has stuck with a West Coast-style spread set out of Oklahoma’s old playbook, but they’ve looked lost trying to run it.
LA QB Josh Johnson has gone 81/135 passing (60%) for 1,076 and 11 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions.  He has been by far the best of the career backups who’ve started in the XFL, and indeed, you could make an argument that he’s been every inch as good as Houston’s P.J. Walker.  Johnson missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, and he’s only just gotten back enough mobility to start running effectively out of the pocket.  That’s helped his game tremendously.  Oh by the way, LA also has former Titans OC Norm Chow calling the plays, and they fired their defensive coordinator immediately after Week 1.  Given all of that, the fact that the Wildcats are still in it at all is a testament to how good Johnson has been this season.  LA has got their defense straightened out, but Chow’s not doing them any favors from the booth.
Meanwhile, my beloved NY Guardians started the year with NFL retread Matt McGloin at quarterback, and despite a nominally impressive opening week, McGloin wasn’t what we might call “good”.  After an impressive-looking Week 1 win, the Guardians dropped two miserable games in a row in Weeks 2 and 3, so that when McGloin finally went out with an injury in Week 3, it was a blessing for everyone.  New York is now starting former AAF standout Luis Perez at quarterback, and that’s my man.  Perez stands 6’2”, 221 lbs out of Division 2 Texas A&M-Commerce, and no, he hasn’t been great, but he’s been good enough to at least stabilize the offense.  His teammates just voted him a captain to boot, and suddenly the Guardians look like they may yet find their footing offensively.  

Guardians Coach Kevin Gilbride wants to run his old Giants playbook, and Perez can make just enough throws and can run just enough -- and provide enough leadership in the huddle -- to maybe make that happen.  In two starts plus one quarter, the Guardians’ captain has gone 38/61 passing (62%) for 418 and 3 touchdowns against just 1 interception.  He’s also run 4 times for 20 yards, which is at least enough to make defenses respect the fact that he can run.
Sure, the Guardians have struggled on offense.  That’s not a secret.  However, having now rotated quarterbacks, offensive linemen, and even running backs, they finally seem to be finding their way.  RB Darius Victor has emerged as New York’s workhorse back despite having to work out of a decidedly -- arguably stubbornly -- pro-style, deep-drop set.  In just three starts, Victor has 55 carries for 238 yards, good for 4.3 yards/carry.  He also has 6 receptions for 36 yards.  This, plus Perez, plus New York’s defense has the Guardians at 3-2 following a big-time road win over Dallas this past Saturday.  If they can win this week at home against Houston, they’ll look like a legitimate playoff team.

Enjoy It For What It Is
The XFL is not the NFL, and the new league’s coaches are only just realizing what that means. XFL offense’s don’t necessarily have O-Lines that can run complicated play-action passing concepts, nor do they necessarily need to because XFL quarterbacks aren’t playing on long, multi-million dollar deals.  In fact, XFL quarterbacks have proven to be nothing if not replaceable, meaning that teams can afford to run them in aggressive option-style sets.  In fact, most teams have to.  Maybe New York and LA will get away with pro-style offenses, but even if they don’t, the new league’s offensive evolution has become one of the XFL’s most interesting story lines.

Have I mentioned that the NY Guardians have an official theme song, and that it's actually amazing?
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2 comments:

  1. AlboneMarch 11, 2020 at 10:14 AM

    Fantastic write up. I've not kept up with the XFL, but I might have to catchup.

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    Replies
    1. Danno E. CabezaMarch 11, 2020 at 10:55 AM

      It’s fun. We have tickets for Saturday’s showdown with the Roughnecks.

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