Thursday, November 7, 2013

This Week’s Picks (NFL Week 10)

We were doing this segment regularly, but then I had to travel one week for work, and I forgot all about it while I was gone.  I didn’t even make picks in our office pool that week, so I had to come back the next week and pick SIX games instead of just three.  That was last week.  I went 2-4 and dropped to 11-16 on the season, out of a tie for first and into third place in our office pool.
What I’ve learned from this exercise is that picking against the spread is harder than it looks.  Bookies, as it happens, know what they’re doing.  No surprise there; I’m just acknowledging the obvious.
So.  Is there any good reason to read through these picks?  Maybe.  But I don’t that I’d bet money on them.  Take that for what it’s worth.

This Week’s Picks:
Tennessee Titans (-11.5) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
I hate picking either for or against my favorite teams, but in the words of Ross Tucker, the Jags have a very real shot at being the worst team in the history of the NFL.  And we saw against the Jets what the Titans can do once they get a lead early.  
I think that happens again this week, and I likewise think Tennessee scores a Hell of a lot of points.
Minnesota Vikings (+1) vs. Washington Redskins
One of the things I’ve learned from doing this picking pool is that home teams getting points are nearly always a good pick.  In this case, I’m still not sold on the Redskins, and I think the Vikings are due to win a game based on the way they played against Dallas.  Washington is not nearly as good as Dallas, and I don’t think the Vikings are as bad as their record—and their press—would have us believe.
That said, the Vikes lost to the Giants, so this pick still feels a little dicey.
Green Bay Packers (Even) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles
I know Aaron Rodgers is hurt.  However, I still think Green Bay is a good team, and the Eagles suck.  They lost to the Giants, and that’s saying something.
Green Bay has a history of finding backup quarterbacks who can play, and I think that happens again.  I don’t know that I’d pick them if they weren’t at home, but they are, so there you have it.
Yeah, I picked a bunch of home teams.  I’m telling you, that home field advantage thing is real.

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