Saturday, October 10, 2015

The Money's Been Moving the Wrong Direction

Prediction time: Duke (HudsonValley.Com)
Army is a 13.5-point home underdog against 4-1 Duke Saturday.

The game opened up at 11.5 points.

Army, which is 0-2 at home this season, has lost four games by a total of 16 points. The Black Knights have not lost its first three home games at Michie Stadium since 2008.

Look, I'm not saying that Army is necessarily going to win, but it's crazy that all the betting has been on Duke to cover an 11-point spread on the road.

1.  The home team is almost always a good bet to cover when they're getting points.

2.  Duke hasn't played a road game in a month.

3.  Every Army game this season has been close except for the game that Army won.

4.  Army is 4-1 against the spread this season.  Duke is 3-2.

via Odds Shark
5.  Duke's defense is excellent.  Their best player is a safety, and they are particularly good against the pass.  But Army doesn't pass.

6.  If you got to the Mirage in Vegas, you can actually get Amy (+14)!  Seriously, you should go do that right now.

If you're wondering, the over/under started at 48 points and has since moved to 47.  I don't think I'd touch that.

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