5 Things on a Friday: #ArmyTop25

Happy Friday, folks.  And Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!
Stay with me today.  This may get a bit involved once we get into some of the math down below.
Bulgarian Baba Vanga — who died in 1996 at the age of 85 – is well known among conspiracy theorists who believe she foretold natural disasters and global events long before they occurred.
Before she died Baba — dubbed the “Nostradamus from the Balkans” — left predictions up to the 51st Century, when she believed the world would end.
For 2018, she foresaw two world-changing events.
They were that China will become the world’s next “superpower,” taking over from the US and “a new form of energy” will be discovered on Venus.
Considering that the government just formally cancelled all plans for future exploration of Venus, that second prophecy seems a bit unlikely.
“I regret voicing my doubts & insecurities in public,” he tweeted. “Creative differences are a common element of any project but usually remain private. All I wanted was to make good movie. I got more than that – [Rian Johnson] made an all-time GREAT one!”
Promotional art for The Force Awakens
Of course he does. He torpedoed his own movie, giving Internet trolls tacit permission to hate on the film. That was legitimately stupid, and if I’m Disney, I probably leave him out of all future films to avoid a repeat performance. His character is dead; they could easily replace him in Ep. IX with Ewan McGregor as force ghost Obi Wan Kenobi.

Hamill famously wanted Luke to ride to the rescue at the end of The Force Awakens, putting his own character back at the center of the story rather than giving that same story over to a new generation of heroes. I get why he’d want that professionally, but passing the torch was the whole point of the last two films.
The scale of the catastrophe that is Star Wars: The Last Jedi is difficult to comprehend without comparing it to major, historic natural disasters.  Because no other movie has come anywhere close to the picture’s $151.5 million 2nd weekend box office razing, there’s no movie comparison that gives its record-obliterating failure proper context.
Speaking of Internet trolls…

No seriously, Forbes has been walking this story back almost since the minute it was published. Exhibit A. Exhibit B. I could go on. Forbes is just trolling the trolls, playing both sides because Star Wars draws clicks like nothing else.

For the record: “‘The Last Jedi’ Jumps To $447M Overseas, Closes In On $900M WW Box Office” according to Deadline. All other factors aside, I’ve no idea how you call that either a flop of a disaster.
My pick is...
'The New Mutants' (April 13)
In launching a horror-tinged franchise with young superpowered mutants, director Josh Boone pulls more from Stephen King and 
One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest than the operatic sci-fi of X-Men. New Mutants is a haunted-house movie in an asylum setting, where five teenagers— sorceress Magik (Anya Taylor-Joy), lycanthropic Wolfsbane (Maisie Williams), propulsive Cannonball (Charlie Heaton), solar-powered Sunspot (Henry Zaga) and psychic Mirage (Blu Hunt) — are held captive in a psych ward.
Yup. That sounds great, and I loved the old 1980s New Mutants comics.
5. #ArmyTop25
I started this yesterday on Twitter, got some good-natured pushback from pro-Army sources, and decided to take a closer look at it to see how things shake out for myself.


Long story short: I have Army at either #25 or #26.
I started with ESPN’s College Football FPI, sorted by strength of record, with a goal of deciding on the Top 25 teams overall.  This list will not be the same as one derived from strength of schedule; I put UCF first because they have the most wins and NO losses.  I then eliminated the following:
 -- Teams with less than 9 wins.
 -- Team with no chance to reach at least 9 wins.
 -- 9- or 10-win teams that have already lost bowl games.
This leaves a total of 22 x 10-win teams and 31 teams with a chance to get to at least 9 wins without losing a bowl game.  My theory is that wins count, and that later wins count more.  In many cases, this turns bowls into play-in games for the Top 25.  That’s reasonable design, and it justifies the existence of the current--very large--bowl slate.
You’re welcome for that.
From here, I assumed that Top 15 teams will be ranked regardless of whether they win or lose their bowls. I also assumed that Auburn will be ranked (but Memphis has to win to get in) and that Army will be ranked ahead of Ohio. Ohio only has 9 wins, and its bowl victory over UAB is far less impressive than Army’s win over SDSU. This leaves 8 teams in the Top 30 with games to come for whom the bowl is a de facto play-in for the Top 25 -- Memphis, Notre Dame, LSU, Louisville, Miss. State, NC State, Michigan, and South Carolina. Assume half of these will be eliminated by bowl losses (highlighted below).

30 - 4 = 26

My list is as follows, ranked on strength of record, not strength of schedule.
Record
TEAM
W-L
Bowl Notes
1
UCF, AAC
12-0
Peach
2
Clemson, ACC
12-1
Sugar
3
Oklahoma, Big 12
12-1
Rose
4
Georgia, SEC
12-1
Rose
5
Wisconsin, Big 10
12-1
Orange
6
Alabama, SEC
11-1
Sugar
7
OSU, Big 10
11-2
Cotton
8
USC, Pac-12
11-2
Cotton
9
TCU, Big 12
11-3
Alamo: Def. Stanford
10
Boise State, MW
11-3
Las Vegas: Def. Oregon
11
FAU, C-USA
11-3
Boca Raton: Def. Akron
12
Toledo, MAC
11-3
Dollar Gen.: Def. App. State
13
Penn State, Big 10
10-2
Fiesta
14
Washington, Pac-12
10-2
Fiesta
15
Miami, ACC
10-2
Orange
16
Memphis, AAC
10-2
Liberty
17
USF, American
10-2
Birmingham: Def. Texas Tech
18
Auburn, SEC
10-3
Peach
19
OK State, Big 12
10-3
Camping World: Def. VT
20
Michigan St., Big 10
10-3
Holiday: Def. Wash. St.
21
Army, Indep.
10-3
Armed Forces: Def. SDSU
22
Fresno State, MW
10-4
Hawaii: Def. Houston
23
Notre Dame, Indep.
9-3
Citrus
24
LSU, SEC
9-3
Citrus
25
Northwestern, Big 10
9-3
Music City
26
Louisville, ACC
8-4
Tax Slayer
27
Miss St, SEC
8-4
Tax Slayer
28
NC State, ACC
8-4
Sun
29
Michigan, Big Ten
8-4
Outback
30
South Carolina, SEC
8-4
Outback
Army’s best shot requires Memphis and NC State both to lose their bowl games, giving us 25 total teams with at least 9 wins and either a bowl victory or a Top 15 rank, including Auburn.  This still may not be enough, but it’s the best, most reasonable argument that I can make that doesn't involve sending sportswriters to the Korea to guard the DMZ with their typewriters.  Which I would also totally do, by the way,
* * *
That’s all I’ve got.  Enjoy the weekend!

Comments

  1. Alas, Northwestern & NC State both won, leaving AT LEAST 26 teams on the list above, assuming Memphis does not also win. Plus, the above list does not include Troy, which also has 11 wins.

    ReplyDelete

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