Saturday, December 23, 2017

College Football Preview: What to Watch When You’re Not Watching Army (Week 2)

First thing’s first: I caught a little flack for doing essentially ZERO research in advance of last week’s post.  Really, I only meant to provide a time and channel guide with a side of snark, but I took Oregon over Boise State, and—like a lot of so-called football experts—I got smoked right alongside the Ducks.
No excuse.  I’m not some paid football expert, but I am smarter than those guys, and I get that you expect me to perform better.
Bowl games!
We’ll be looking at both the betting lines (via Oddsshark) and Football Outsiders’ S&P+ scores this week, and with luck, we’ll get better results.  That said, I refuse to dive any deeper on all of these games.  I just don’t have the interest.
Per last week, all times and channels are via 506Sports.

Saturday, December 23
12:00 pm. Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech vs South Florida (ESPN)
Vegas likes USF by about a field goal.  That is insane.  USF came within an eyelash of winning the AAC while Texas Tech went 6-6.  S&P+ likes the Bulls by a little more than 8, and I think they have more to prove than does Texas Tech.
Pick: USF (-3)

3:30 pm.  Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State vs Army (ESPN)
I wrote an extended preview of the game on Wednesday, so if you missed it, go check that out.  Speaking personally, I think Army’s biggest problem isn’t Rashaad Penny or the SDSU rushing attack.  It’s the Aztecs’ rushing defense.  The good news, if such exists, is that the Aztecs’ defense tends to attack and over-pursue, and that can open up the Option-Pitch.  Letting the pitch-man get outside is how you die against a triple-option team.
Pick: Army (+7)
This ought to be a 3.5-point game, and the line is a touchdown.  The crowd should be strongly partisan for the Black Knights, and I think Army will handle the elements, especially the atmospheric humidity of Fort Worth, TX, significantly better than will SDSU.  
I honestly don’t love this pick, but it’s the best I’ve got.

7:00 pm. Dollar General Bowl: Appalachian State vs Toledo (ESPN)
The line says Toledo by a touchdown.  S&P+ makes them better by just a field goal.  Both teams have good offenses, but App. State has the better defense.
Easy money.  Barring disaster, this ought to be a very close game.
Pick: Appalachian State (+7)
Sunday, December 24
8:30 pm.  Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs Houston (ESPN)
What a game!  I expect both teams came into the season with bigger dreams, but ending in Hawaii has to be a good way to close the season.  Amazingly, Houston is actually favored by just less than a field goal.  WTF?  Last I looked, Fresno State was nationally ranked.  S&P+ makes the game a virtual push.
Pick: Fresno State (+2.5)
If you’re a betting man (or woman), go lay that one right now!

Tuesday, December 26
1:30 pm.  Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah vs West Virginia (ESPN)
Vegas likes Utah by 4.5.  S&P+ likes them by almost that same amount.
Eh.  Sally and I are going skiing on Tuesday.
Pick: No play
5:15 pm.  Quick Lane Bowl: Duke vs Northern Illinois (ESPN)
This is a much more intriguing matchup than you’d think.  Northern Illinois went 8-4 in the MAC but played a tougher schedule than they’re getting credit for playing.  Duke went 6-6 against an admittedly tough ACC schedule but came on strong to close out the year.
Vegas likes Duke by just less than a field goal while S&P+ actually prefers NIU by a solid 3.5 points.  The problem is that Duke has been really streaky.  When the Blue Devils have been good, they’ve been very good.  But they’ve also shot themselves in the foot a few times.
Pick: NIU (+2.5)
I’ll have to make sure we listen to this one on satellite radio on the way back from Ski Butternut.  I can easily see Duke winning, but with the S&P+ ranking, this is still an obvious bet.

9:00 pm.  Cactus Bowl: Kansas State vs UCLA (ESPN)
Aside from my wife, the hottest girl I ever dated was a K-State graduate.  Man, she was smoking.
Vegas also likes K-State—a little.  S&P+ says the game is a push.
Pick: No play
I swam at UCLA’s pool a few times back in the day.  It was absolutely state-of-the art in the late 1980s.
Wednesday, December 27
1:30 pm. Independence Bowl: Southern Mississippi vs. Florida State (ESPN 2)
Vegas likes the Seminoles by more than two touchdowns.  S&P+ actually likes Southern Miss. by more than a field goal.  Crazy!
Pick: Southern Miss. (+16.5)
16.5 is a lot of points.  Even if the ‘Noles win big, Southern Miss. can cover with a garbage time TD.  Alas, this has not been a good year for Power 5 bias.

5:15 pm.  Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa vs Boston College (ESPN)
This game is played in Yankee Stadium, and one of these days, I’m going to go to it.  I have to work this Wednesday, so it won’t be this year, unfortunately.
Vegas likes Iowa by a little less than a field goal.  S&P+ agrees.  Add in that both teams are better on defense than on offense, and points will be at a premium.
The Over/Under is 45.
Pick: Under
The game is in New York City in December.  Among other things, it’s liable to snow!

8:30 pm.  Foster Farms Bowl: Arizona vs Purdue (Fox)
Hey!  Brady Quinn is doing color commentary for this game.
Vegas likes Arizona by about 3.5.  That sounds about right to me, but S&P+ likes Purdue by a point and a half.  FO says that Purdue is noticeably better on both offense and defense.
Pick: Purdue (+3.5)
That right there is a good bet.  I was pulling for Army to get Purdue in the Armed Forces Bowl back when the other slot was scheduled to host the Big 10.  SDSU is probably a better matchup, though.

9:00 pm.  Texas Bowl: Texas vs Missouri (ESPN)
The line opened at Longhorns (+1) but has since moved in favor of Missouri.
Pick: No play
Thursday, December 28
1:30 pm. Military Bowl: Virginia at Navy (ESPN)
Believe it or not, this is actually a home game for the Mids.  With the Brigade of Midshipmen out of town for the Christmas break, however, I doubt home field advantage means much.  It’s not like either school has to travel.
The line opened even but has moved in favor of Navy by a point.  S&P+ makes the game a push.  Virginia struggles to score points while Navy struggles to stop anyone.  Do the Cavaliers have the speed to contain Malcolm Perry?
Pick: Under
The Over/Under is 55.  I’m betting that UVA’s defense is more athletic than anything the Mids have seen this season.  Navy might win, but I don’t think they can make it a high-scoring affair.
@YardsandStripes
New(ish) podcast Yards and Stripes has a good take on this game and on Army’s game.  Army fans will have heard everything they discuss, but the Navy take was new to me.  Definitely worth a listen.

  


5:15 pm. Camping World Bowl: #22 Virginia Tech vs #19 Oklahoma State (ESPN)
S&P+ makes Oklahoma State a 5-point favorite.  That’s about where Vegas has the game as well.
Pick: No play
9:00 pm. Alamo Bowl: #13 Stanford vs. #15 TCU (ESPN)
Stanford is way overrated this season.
Pick: TCU (-2.5)


9:00 pm. Holiday Bowl: #16 Michigan State vs #18 Washington State (Fox Sports 1)
Washington State opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but the line has slipped all the way to just a single point.  Lotta folks are selling the PAC-12 all of a sudden.
Alas, S&P+ makes the game a push.  Two good defenses, but neither offense has been particularly good.  Argh.
Pick: No play
* * *
That’s all I’ve got.  There are entirely too many games on Friday, December 29, to include them here.  If this post gets enough readership, I’ll do one more and cover the many, many New Year’s games.  Otherwise, you all are on your own.
By -
Labels: , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)