It’s almost May, which means that Spring Football is over. This in turn means it’s finally time to take a realistic look at Army’s 2018 season. This year, we’ll break the season down into quarters, examining 2018 in three-game sets. As we did last year, we’ll take a look at the news coming out of spring camp for each team that Army plays, as well as projections from ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) and SB*Nation’s S&P+.
Ranking the Black Knights
The Black Knights rarely fare well in these early season polls. First, because Army struggles to recruit 3-star and better players out of high school. Second, because the Black Knights’ strength of schedule isn’t particularly competitive against the upper half of the FBS. And finally, because the program’s success has come on the heels of a number of bad losing seasons, meaning that any “rolling average”-type annualized metrics tend to hurt Army quite a bit. This is especially true for S&P+.
Subjectively speaking, the national football audience hasn’t quite bought in.
Army Football therefore faces a make-or-break season on the national stage. The team has to field a lot of new players, including a new quarterback, four new offensive linemen, and at least one new starting wide receiver. On defense, the needs are fewer but the production being replaced is perhaps more important. Firsties Rhyan England, Alex Aukerman, and Jonathan Voit are all graduating, leaving the Black Knights in need of a new captain in the secondary, a game changing rush linebacker, and a dominant presence along the D-Line. If Army can weather these losses and continue to play at a high level, it will go a long way towards establishing the program’s legitimacy on the national stage.
But that’s opportunity. As of this writing, there aren’t a lot of believers out there, as is reflected by both of our preseason models
Army FPI: -8.7 (98th)
Army S&P+: -5.3 (92nd)
The good news is that these rankings are about in line with what we’ve seen the past few seasons. Army outperformed those rankings then, and they may very well outperform again in 2018.
September 1st: at Duke
The Blue Devils should improve from 2017. Returning QB Daniel Jones is the headliner. If Jones can get into a groove and play more like he did his freshman year, when he completed almost 63% of his passes, then this team could make some noise, even in a tough ACC.
Alas, last year’s Duke team had trouble scoring touchdowns, and it turned the ball over too much. Jones in particular threw 11 interceptions against just 12 TDs while his completion percentage dropped to 55.7%. The Blue Devils offense therefore spent this spring trying to get better at scoring, for which they’re hoping their three returning tight ends can help. The offense has been hampered, however, by offseason injuries to their wide receiving corps, though those guys ought to be back by the opener.
Perhaps more importantly, Duke is a team that tends to start fast. Jones struggled through a six-game losing streak in the middle of last season, but hestarted hot and finished the same way, getting his team to a bowl game despite losing six straight. Oh by the way, Duke won its postseason contest in fine fashion, tromping Northern Illinois 36-14 in what had been expected to be a close game.
Two years ago, the Blue Devils fielded one of college football’s most dominant defenses, especially against the rush. They expect to be dominant on that side of the ball again in 2018, and most prognosticators agree. Army therefore enters this contest as a multi-touchdown underdog.
Duke FPI: 8.6 (30th)
Duke S&P+: 5.8 (40th)
For those scoring at home, ESPN makes Army a 17-point underdog while S&P+ gives Duke an advantage of around 11 points. That’s before home field advantage.
The good news is that Army also tends to start fast, and that they’ve had particular success on the road the past two seasons. Indeed, if the Black Knights’ new offense can keep the chains moving against Duke’s stout rushing defense, this may yet be a close contest once again. However, if the Blue Devils can successfully run-blitz the quarterback/fullback intermesh, well… That’s when we’re in for a long day.
September 8th: vs. Liberty
Liberty applied to both C-USA and the Sun Belt Conference ahead of their move to the FBS, but they were rejected by both. C-USA in particular appears to have been uncomfortable with Falwell’s personal legacy. The Flames are therefore committed to competing as independents, bribing future opponents with literal multi-million dollar payouts in exchange for games. The Flames are also spending fully $40 million on stadium upgrades. Their new digs lookgorgeous.
Even so, it’s hard to see how this team succeeds now, particularly against a team with Army’s strengths. The Flames finished just 6-5 last season, beating a decidedly underperforming Baylor team in the opener but then dropping multiple FCS games as their season progressed. They finished with 358 points-scored to 334 points-allowed, good for a P(Wins) of 53%. This in a season where they tended to pour it on against outclassed opponents but struggled against well-coached, quality teams. Of more worry for this particular matchup, the Flames gave up 2,475 yards rushing on just 445 carries (5.6 yard/carry) and 16 rushing touchdowns against just 6 passing touchdowns allowed.
Those are not the stats you want to bring into Michie Stadium.
Liberty FPI: -17.1 (117th)
Liberty S&P+: -11.8 (115th)
Liberty is mostly building its program through junior college transfers while using its facilities construction program to overwhelm potential high school recruits. Construction at their stadium prevented a spring game, unfortunately. RB Peytton Pickett was perhaps their biggest offseason JUCO transfer, but without a seasonal scrimmage to gauge the team’s progress, it’s tough to project specific matchups.
Still, S&P+ and FPI both give Army something like a 10-point advantage, and if the Flames do indeed give up 5.6 yards/carry, that’s probably conservative.
September 15th: vs. Hawaii
The bad news is that they’re doing it with almost an entirely new team and a new coaching staff. The Warriors lost a ton of talent last season, either to graduation or transfer, presumably because players didn’t want to switch coaching staffs and offensive systems. They retained All-Mountain West LB Jahlani Tavai, but the rest of the team will be almost entirely new faces.
Hawaii therefore finds itself in something like the position Army held back when the Black Knights first hired Jeff Monken. Even if the team’s rebuild is wildly successful, it’s liable to take at least some time. Moreover, Hawaii is kind of a hard sell to recruits, at least right now.
Hawaii FPI: -19.1 (126th)
Hawaii S&P+: -14.2 (122nd)
I had to look up details of the run-and-shoot. As Colt Brennan explains below (starting at the 2:20 mark), the offense is a particular version of the spread, with three receivers on one side and a single wideout on the other. These guys all have option routes based on defensive coverage, while a single running back stays in for protection. With the defense spread both vertically and horizontally, the quarterback can either throw or run. As designed, Hawaii expects to throw at least 40 times/game.
Brennan excelled at making plays down the field, but I would expect Hawaii’s new-look team to focus more on completion percentage through high accuracy throws. Lots of teams have found success throwing quick outs against Army’s secondary. However, it’s tough to sustain drives that way, especially with a young team. If the Black Knights can prevent the Warriors making too many big plays down the field, this is a game that Army should win handily.
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Next Week: We talk a little about how Army’s offense looked in the Black & Gold Game and then examine the 2nd quarter of the season.
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