We talked a bit last week about how ESPN and SB*Nation are modeling their outlooks for Army Football in 2018. We then looked at the coming season’s first three games. This week, we’ll talk a bit about the Black Knights’ offense and take a look at the team’s next three games, the season’s so-called Second Quarter.
Army Football on Offense
If you need a refresher on the triple-option before we start, that’s here (for the basics) and here (for the subtleties between the service academies).
So. SB Kell Walker’s move to quarterback made perhaps the biggest news of the offseason, with one well-connected journalist telling me privately that rumors inside the team expected Walker to start in 2018. I never quite believed that, personally, but Coach Jeff Monken and company did indeed move Walker to quarterback, having him compete daily with QB Kelvin Hopkins—his roommate—for the starter’s title at the end of spring camp.
Folks speculated that Monken had been impressed with the way Navy’s offense performed with QB Malcolm Perry under center and that Army was maybe looking to replicate at least some of what those other guys did with Walker. Moreover, Walker himself supposedly played pretty well under center, fueling further speculation. It’s no secret that Ahmad Bradshaw’s natural elusiveness and inside power running were big parts of Army’s success in 2017. Hopkins clearly has the better arm, but was Monken worried, perhaps, that his would-be heir-apparent didn’t have the sheer speed and power to run inside when he had to?
In hindsight, I doubt that was it at all.
In fact, Hopkins also played very well during spring camp. He led Army’s first-team offense to a grinding first-drive touchdown during the Black and Gold game, scoring against the defensive starters behind a line that boasts just a single returning starter but which has multiple upper-class players with in-game experience. Walker, meanwhile, finished third on Army’s depth chart, behind both Hopkins and rising yearling QB Cam Thomas. Moreover, when the team’s two-deep depth chart came out at the end of camp, Walker was listed back in the slot.
To be honest, the final reports make it sound like Walker wasn’t expected to beat out Hopkins after all. Rather, I’ve started to think that he was competing primarily with Thomas and fellow plebe QB Christian Anderson, neither of whom have ever played so much as a snap of real college football.
Reality is that Army’s triple-option tends to be tough on its quarterbacks. The team legitimately needs to have at least two game-ready guys who can play under center. Bradshaw’s 2017 season is the only one I can even remember in which Army’s starting quarterback actually started every game. With that in mind, being able to bring Walker in to compete with and push his roommate was good—you don’t just want to give your starter’s job to the guy who assumes he’s going to get it, after all—but having emergency options if your presumed starter goes down… That’s actually much more important.
So really, the good news isn’t that Kelvin Hopkins looks to have the inside track in 2018. We probably should have expected that. I did expect that. No, the actual good news is that Monken and company have enough faith in Thomas and Anderson that they feel comfortable moving Walker back to his natural position even with the very real possibility that one or both of those guys will see meaningful time in 2018.
As a final note: rising yearlings WR Cam Harrison and SB Fred Cooper both look to be really good players. Harrison made his first catch as a Black Knight in last year’s bowl game and has been repeatedly mentioned in the months since for his hands and catching radius. As beat writer Sal Interdonato put it, “He catches everything that’s thrown his way.” Meanwhile, the staff itself has been raving about Cooper all spring. Indeed, I doubt Monken and company would even have attempted moving Walker to quarterback were they not exceedingly confident of Cooper’s ability to carry the load outside off the pitch.
That’s good news, too.
September 22: at Oklahoma
Army opens the second quarter of its season with a road-trip to Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming off a fantastic season. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Baker Mayfield very nearly lifted his team to a National Championship. But it’s no easy feat to replace that kind of production at the team’s most important position, and what’s worse is that Mayfield’s production let his team paper over some otherwise important weaknesses. Without Mayfield’s accuracy throwing the ball, Oklahoma will need to improve its defense in order to get anywhere near the same level of production on the national stage.
As of this writing, there’s been no decision yet on which quarterback is going to get the start. Still, QB Austin Kendall played decidedly better than his rivals during the Red and White game, going 11/18 for 134 yards (61.1%), a touchdown, and an interception. Kendall didn’t play in 2017 but went 16/22 for 143 yards (72.7%) in 2016 with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. That is very impressive.
Similarly, four-star RB Kennedy Brooks ran for 109 yards on just 11 carries (9.9 yards/carry) against the Sooners' starting defense. That's either a great sign for the Sooners’ running game or a not-great sign for a defense that struggled to stop the run at times in 2017. The fact that this was a scrimmage might also make a difference. From reading press coverage, though, it seems like most of Oklahoma’s efforts during the offseason went into shoring up their pass defense. Having given up almost 10 yards/carry to a freshman, however, they might want to balance that out a bit.
Oklahoma FPI: 19.1 (9th)
Oklahoma S&P+: 19.5 (9th)
Army looks totally overmatched in this game, and yet, I find that I’m cautiously optimistic. First, because no one expects the Black Knights to be more than basically competitive, and I think they might do a little better than that. Second, because we already have a template for winning games like this one. Oklahoma ranked 54th in rushing defense last season, giving up 2,191 yards and 26 rushing touchdowns on 500 carries (4.38 yards/carry). That yielded 156.5 yards rushing/game. Army ran successfully against much better rushing defenses than that in 2017.
If Army has a chance, then, it’ll be because the offense gashes an underperforming run defense, maintains time-of-possession, and shortens this game to a one-score contest that they can somehow win at the end. I don’t know that that’s the way I would bet, exactly, but if the line is something like Army (+25), I might take the Black Knights and those piles of points.
September 29: at Buffalo
The Black Knights’ fifth game of the season is at the Buffalo Bulls, and as odd as this might sound, it’s actually a tougher match-up in some ways than is the game in Oklahoma. The Bulls return eight starters on offense, including junior QB Tyree Jackson. They also return LB Khalil Hodge, the best defensive player in the MAC and arguably the best defender that Army saw all season in 2017. Buffalo’s defense presents particular problems for Army because their D-Line is big, and if they’re not always particularly athletic, they’ve still proven particularly good against the Fullback Dive.
The Bulls went just 6-6 last season, and that wasn’t good enough to get them invited to a bowl game, but they were a much better team than their record indicated. Notably, Jackson missed 4 games in the middle of the season last year, during which his team went just 1-3. That included one 8x Overtime epic in which their offense couldn’t quite close out the win. But the Bulls were 5-3 when Jackson started, and that’s huge. Jackson is a strong-armed quarterback who’s accuracy has improved over time. On the season, he went 143/237 for 2,096 yards (60.3%) with 12 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions. That’s outstanding for a college sophomore. The question, then, isn’t whether or not Jackson can play. The question is, can he stay healthy?
Buffalo’s defensive statistics are similar. The Bulls’ rushing defense ranked just 96th in FBS college football last year, allowing 194.8 yards rushing/game. But that was on a whopping 534 carries, for a total of just 4.38 yards/carry. Plus, the Bulls gave up just 21 rushing touchdowns. Which is maybe not elite, but it’s much, much better than one would expect given the team’s overall record and preseason projections.
Buffalo FPI: -8.0 (96th)
Buffalo S&P+: -5.4 (93rd)
Both models make this game a pick ‘em. FPI gives Buffalo about a half-point advantage while S&P+ makes Army the favorite by less than that. Recent experience agrees. The teams went to overtime last time Army went to Buffalo. Army won in regulation in 2017, but it took a literal last-minute fake punt to put the game away. Really, Buffalo is an improving team, and this ought to be an exciting and very competitive contest.
October 6: Bye
October 13: at San Jose State
Second-year head coach Brent Brennan had a miserable team last season. The Spartans went just 2-11 (1-7 in MW). They couldn’t score points, and they couldn’t stop anybody else from scoring points, either.
The good news, then, is that the Spartan offense looks much improved this season. They were dominant during their recent spring game, hitting multiple big plays behind several different quarterbacks. Though we’re still not 100% sure who’s going to start, SJSU appears to have at least a couple of decent options. QB Montell Aaron started during the spring game, going 3/6 (50%) for 106 yards(!) and a touchdown. QB Josh Love followed, going 7/11 (63.6%) for 148 yards. RB DeJon Packer led all rushers with 54 yards on just 11 carries (4.9 yards/carry).
All of that looked pretty good.
Unfortunately, it implies that the Spartans’ defense is not quite field ready. SJSU’s linebackers showed “decent pursuit” according to the article linked above, but that’s about the best that could be said, and really, what would you expect when every quarterback on the roster is throwing all over your secondary, and the backs are all breaking off big yardage plays every time they touch the ball?
Also: the kicking wasn’t real good.
FPI: -17.7 (119th)
S&P+: -19.1 (129th)
S&P+: -19.1 (129th)
SJSU might very well be an improved squad this year, but they’re not ready to compete with the Mountain West, and I doubt they’ll do much to stop Army’s option attack, either. Teams ran on them a ton last year—more than 70% of the time! That’s going to continue until they show that they can stop it, and if they give up 4.9 yards/carry to the Black Knights, they may yet be in for a long day.
* * *
That’s all I’ve got.
Next week: We talk a little about Army’s defense and get into the heart of the season as Army takes on Miami (Ohio), Air Force, and Eastern Michigan.
Go Army!
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