We’ve spent the last few weeks looking at spring camp results from Army’s 2018 seasonal opponents, going three games at a time. This week brings us to the season’s finish, the so-called fourth quarter.
Outside of the Army-Navy game, it’s not a compelling slate. North Texas opted out of the second half of what was originally a four-game home-and-home set following their loss in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2017. That left the Athletic Department scrambling to schedule two games on short notice, and as a result, the Black Knights once again have two FCS games, both with opponents from the Patriot League.
But while local rivalries matter, scheduling two FCS games really isn’t helping the Black Knights’ cause. What’s worse, of this year’s FCS slate, only one game is even moderately compelling, the game against 2017 Patriot Co-champions Colgate. And even then… I mean, the Red Raiders had a decent team. They went 5-1 in the Patriot League and generally did pretty well. But they got smashed by all three of the best teams they faced, Buffalo, Syracuse, and Furman.
So. Rather than going into detail on a couple of teams that Army ought to beat handily, let’s take some time to talk about the differences between the triple-options at Army and Navy and talk a bit about ball distribution. For this, we’re going to rely on 18 Stripes, a Notre Dame sports fansite that did terrific analysis back during the 2016 season, when the Irish played Navy and Army in back-to-back weeks. We’ll start with Navy because the articles make more sense when you read them in the order in which they were written.
No, seriously, you need to read this. Everything after these two paragraphs assumes you understand the concepts previewed below.
Film Room: Triple Option Preview (18 Stripes)
If you want to get technical, the triple option is just one type of play, not an entire offense. But the triple option is the base play of Navy’s offense and they run it quite a bit, so the name of that one play has morphed into a way of describing the whole offense.
The goal of the triple option – or any option play – is to read a defender instead of blocking him. If he reacts one way, the quarterback does something that makes that player “wrong.” In essence, that player is “blocked” without needing a physical blocker. This is no different than the standard zone read (or also called the read option) that is everywhere in college football today, even at Notre Dame.
The key takeway is that Navy runs a spread version of the triple option, often putting multiple receivers on the field and trying to get the ball to guys out in space. At Navy, you’ll often see the quarterback step back after the snap and either run up on a Draw or laterally on a Speed Option. This makes a certain amount of sense when you have a burner like QB Malcolm Perry under center, but it can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy if you know you need speed at quarterback to get to the edges.
By comparison, the Midline Option and/or Fullback Dive is a much smaller part of Navy’s offense, with the result that Navy’s quarterbacks wind up carrying the ball a lot. And that’s kind of the point. You go back and watch last year’s Army-Navy Game, and bottom line, it’s the Malcolm Perry Show.
Film Room: Army Triple Option Preview (18 Stripes)
This speaks to the biggest philosophical difference between Army and Navy. Army makes extensive use of the tight end, while Navy doesn’t even have a tight end listed on their roster... [W]hile Navy wants to spread teams out and hit the edges, Army likes to compact things and play the game between the tackles.
Army makes much, much more use of the Midline Option, but the way they run it puts teams into a serious bind. Either you sell out to stop the Fullback Dive, or the Black Knights run the ball right down your throat. But if you do sell out to stop the Dive, Army hits you with the Keeper, bringing three lead blockers down into the hole. Granted, that sometimes gets a little crowded, but QB Ahmad Bradshaw still averaged some 7.5 yards/carry in 2017.
It’s worth noting that Army quarterbacks almost always move forward on their first step, even if they fake the Dive and follow the play through the hole. The entire offense is designed around surging attacks. Everybody crashes down, even when the quarterback waits a beat while blocks develop. As a result, Army almost never gets hit with negative plays, but the downside is that true outside Speed Option calls have become almost a rarity, though Army will often have an slotback on the outside when runs break off-tackle.
Instead of the Speed Option, Army uses Midline plays to set up the Rocket Sweeps outside with SB Kell Walker.
This isn’t the option. This is more what the option opens up. You can see the combination work to great effect during the last drive against SDSU in 2017’s Armed Forces Bowl. The drive starts at the 1:52 mark, or if you’ve got the time, just watch the whole game. It is an all-time classic.
Either way, the tendencies are unmistakable.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect to all of this is the degree to which this particular version of this offense suits the talents of QB Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s not a burner, be he’s elusive and very good in traffic between the tackles. OC Brent David has used those qualities relentlessly.
Which in turn has me wondering what the coaching staff will do to tailor the scheme to Kelvin Hopkins, especially since Coach Monken said over the offseason that he wants to find more ways to get the ball into Walker’s hands. Add in that the staff is also high on rising yearling SB Fred Cooper, and for a while, I thought maybe we’d see more Speed Option plays this fall. But I don’t think they’ll want to give up that Rocket Sweep, nor is it necessarily desirable to have defenses start paying more attention to the edges.
Also: given the returning production at fullback, why go away from the Midline?
This ought to be quite an interesting season schematically, especially with Duke sitting first on the schedule. The Blue Devils have been particularly effective against this offense because they see it twice every year, both from Army & Georgia Tech. They tend to run-blitz the QB/FB intermesh, and when they get penetration, that really fucks up the scheme. Which brings us back to what I said in the first entry to this series, that Army can beat Duke, but it’s a tough ask as the first game of the season. The whole game is gonna turn on initial push at the line of scrimmage.
December 8th: The Army-Navy Game
It’s an interesting schedule. I could see them losing in Hawaii, but not this year. So they’re probably 2-0 headed into Memphis. Alas, the Tigers have the best triple-option defense on a pound-for-pound basis that I’ve ever seen. That matters because Memphis knocked QB Zach Abey out of last year’s game, and Navy’s offense never really recovered. Worse, Malcolm Perry is a smaller guy who, if anything, keeps the ball even more than Abey did. So that’s something to watch.
The SMU game could go either way, but Navy’s gonna best Air Force badly. They’re probably 3-2 or maybe 4-1 heading into the hard part of their schedule. The issue is that I think Temple is going to be the most improved team in the AAC this year, and they’ve seen the triple-option a Hell of a lot in the last few years, and their coach is a noted defensive mastermind. Personally, I think they drop all three games in this stretch, ending at 4-4 after Notre Dame. And again, if Perry is still carrying the ball 40% of the time, injures are a significant risk. Dude already had offseason foot problems, and we know the Mids are no match for their low-quarters.
Are the Mids panicked at 4-4 with UCF and Army still to play?
Eh. Probably not.
They’re probably 5-5 after beating Cinci and dropping a tough game in Central Florida. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt in the next two against Tulsa and Tulane while noting that the Green Wave are a team on the rise. Really, Tulane is Navy’s Buffalo. Folks expect the Mids to beat the Green Wave because they haven’t been good in a while, but the program right now doesn’t get the credit it deserves. Anyway, let’s say 7-5 heading into Army-Navy while speculating that Perry will have had time to get healthy and back on the field after taking a beating at some point in the middle of the season.
--Navy FPI: -4.4 (78th)
--Navy S&P+: -3.3 (85th)
I keep coming back to Perry’s health because it really matters. The Mids moved Abey to receiver during the offseason, and they have no proven slot backs. Anthony Gargiolo is a terrific fullback, but it’s not like they’re gonna ride him to glory. Bottom line, they are all in on the Malcolm Perry Show. They spent all offseason working on his passing. This is the plan. They’re going with it.
Moreover, if this offense can’t outperform, the Mids are screwed. I mean, Navy’s defense was better in 2017, but this team is ride-or-die on outscoring people. That is just what they do.
So. There’s a lot of football to be played before next December, and historically it’s been very difficult for one team to win at Army-Navy three years in a row. At this point, the game is an obvious tossup. But the national media has been ranking Navy ahead of Army by default for years now, and that probably needs to stop. I grant that Malcolm Perry is himself a great player, but this idea of hanging the whole offense on him is fraught with possibility, both good and bad.
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That’s all for the 2018 season. But it’s the doldrums of summer, so I guess maybe we’ll do one more of these.
Next week: we peek ahead at the 2019 and 2020 schedules by way of keeping tabs on the mighty Boo Corrigan and the way Army’s Athletic Department is managing the schedule over time.
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