Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Army Football Preview: Hawai’i

After a big win at home against Liberty last week, the Black Knights are back at Michie this weekend for an unexpected Death Match against the resurgent Rainbow Warriors from the University of Hawai’i.  Hawai’i has vaporized everyone they’ve played with the power of their rebuilt run-and-shoot offense, but for better or worse, this is a game that Army badly needs to win.  
With the way the schedule shakes out, the Black Knights will need five wins before the Lafayette game to ensure bowl eligibility.  This is because only one FCS game counts towards the requisite six, and Army-Navy happens after bowl invitations have already been issued.  With tough road games against Oklahoma, Buffalo, and an Eastern Michigan team that has finally learned to finish, Army’s margin for error has become razor thin.  The Black Knights therefore need to win now in order to hit the meat of their schedule on the upswing and to give themselves just the slightest bit of breathing room going forward.


Army Black Knights
The good news is that Army’s offense got back on track last weekend.  The offensive line got good push against Liberty’s big D-Line, allowing the triple-option to gain fully 449 yards rushing.  Amazingly, despite a decidedly lackluster offensive performance against Duke, Army has already rebounded to rank 2nd nationally in time-of-possession and 8th in rushing.  After two very different contests, the Black Knights have rushed for an average of 308.5 yards/game (5.1 yards/carry) while allowing just under 150.  Army QB Kelvin Hopkins is just 12/28 passing (42.9%) for 258 yards, but he’s averaging a very respectable 9.2 yards/attempt, and he’s thrown 2 touchdowns without an interception.

FB Calen Holt leads all Army rushers with 13 carries for 126 yards (9.7 yards/carry) and a touchdown.  FB Darnell Woolfolk (4.9 yards/carry), Hopkins (3.4 yards/carry), and FB Connor Slomka (5.4 yards/carry) follow.  After just one game, SB Fred Cooper already has 81 yards on 10 carries (8.1 yards/carry), and as I mentioned Sunday, he’s become a difference-maker.  SB Kell Walker and WR Cam Harrison lead the team with 3 receptions apiece.  Both guys average more than 25 yards/reception.  Despite facing a terrific Duke defense in Week 1, the Black Knights’ rank 60th in total offense.  To date, Army has put up a very respectable 437.5 yards/game and 5.8 yards/play.  
That’s how Army Football wins: 5.8 yards/play and a massive-of-possession advantage.
There are still reasons to be concerned, however.  Army has seen an inordinate number of penalties for low blocks, and unfortunately, those are 15-yard personal fouls.  That’s put the Black Knights behind the chains more consistently than they’d like to be, pushing their 3rd down conversion percentage to just 39.3%.  Army is 6/6 on 4th down, so when they can stay on schedule, they’re extending drives, but 3 low blocks and 1 holding call last week meant that Army wound up punting 6 times.  That won’t work against the Rainbow Warriors.
On defense, Army is giving up 399 yards/game and a whopping 7.1 yards/play (85th).  Ouch!  Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 59% of their passes, but Army has given up 147 yards/game rushing (t-69th) and an unsustainable 5.1 yards/carry.  Army’s 3rd down defense has been better, allowing just 33.3% conversions, but they’ve given up some long plays, and they’ve allowed opposing offenses to score 3 touchdowns on 5 trips to the red zone (60%).  That has the team tied for dead last in red zone defense percentage.  
Army might be gaining 5.8 yards/play, but they are allowing 7.1 yards/play.  That’s living mighty dangerously.
Army special teams remain a work-in-progress.  The team kicked its first field goal on Saturday, but it was an ugly-looking duck of a kick that just squeaked over the bar.  The team has punted reasonably well, but kick coverage teams have room for improvement, and special teams has yet to block a kick.  At some point, they’re going to need to get better production from teams to win a close game.


Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Hawai’i wins by vaporizing their opponents early.  In three games, the Rainbow Warriors have gotten out to a commanding lead before hanging on to win a surprisingly close contest in the 4th quarter.  The Warriors saw Colorado State and Navy both mount furious comebacks, but in each case, Hawai’i was able to get a late score to put the game just out of reach in crunch time.  Even Rice kept it to a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter, though the Owls couldn’t quite finish.
It’s all offense for the Warriors, but their offense has been exceptionally good.  They stand 4th in passing, averaging 391 yards/game.  QB Cole McDonald has gone 78/111 passing (70.3%) for an NCAA-leading 1,165 yards and 13 touchdowns with no interceptions.  That is truly excellent.  The Warriors are less-good running the ball, but McDonald has 27 carries for 125 yards (4.6 yards/carry) and 2 more touchdowns.  WRs John Ursua and Cedrix Byrd lead the team in receptions with 26 and 27 catches respectively, giving the duo 742 yards and 10 touchdowns, 5 each.  

 RB Freddie Holly III leads the team in rushing with 59 carries for 277 yards (4.7 yards/carry), followed by McDonald.  Holly also has four catches for 61 yards.  Those must all have come on shovel screens against Colorado State.  Overall, Hawai’i has carried 93 times for 447 yards (4.8 yards/carry) or 149 yards rushing/game (90th).  By my calculation, that makes the Rainbow Warriors’ offensive mix about 55% pass to 45% run.  We don’t see that very often from successful G5 offenses.
Where Hawai’i struggles is on defense, especially rushing defense.  The Warriors are giving 5.2 yards/carry and 196 yards rushing/game (100th) along with 6 rushing touchdowns.  That is really amazing considering that they’ve gone way up in each of their games, forcing opponents to throw to try to get back into it.  LB Jahlani Tavai is a two-time all-Mountain West defender, but the rest of this defense is pretty young.  Overall, the Warriors are giving up 7.2 yards/play on defense and a mind-numbing 503.3 yards/game (116th).  It’s truly amazing that they can win like that, but they’ve gotten away with it because their offense has put up elite numbers of their own—540 yards/game on 7.9 yards/play.  The Warriors have converted 45.5% of their 3rd downs but have allowed opponents to convert 46.7%.
Bottom line, these guys are playing with fire.  So far, they haven’t gotten burned.


Key Matchups
This is a game that the Black Knights can most definitely win, but they will need to play the most Army game in Army history.  When we see a team giving up 5.2 yards/carry and 46.7% 3rd down conversion percentage, it certainly seems to favor the Black Knights’ style.  But Army is undoubtedly vulnerable to the same run-and-shoot dynamics that have bedeviled the rest of college football, too.
I don't love the way S&P+ is bouncing around, but I added it because folks were so confused by the betting line.
Click to expand.

Army’s D-Line vs. the Run-and-Shoot.  The run-and-shoot is hard to defend because it spreads the defense horizontally and vertically at the same time.  The Warriors line up in a spread set with McDonald and Holly in the backfield, from which McDonald has a run/pass option.  McDonald and Holly can both run, meaning that the defense has to play disciplined across all the gaps simultaneously ala the Zone Read, but this leaves at least one receiver open one-on-one.  McDonald has been very efficient hitting quick passes.  When the protection is good, McDonald has been terrific at pushing the ball down the field.  When it’s not good, he’s still very dangerous running the football.  
Still, the run-and-shoot isn’t a quick-strike offense.  It’s a possession offense based on an efficient passing game and enough rushing to keep the chains moving.
Army needs to find some way to get pressure on McDonald, or he’s going to pick the Black Knights’ secondary apart.  That’s tough, though, because Army runs a 3-4 defense with heavy blitz pressure, and I don’t know how much blitzing you want to do against this particular set.  Army blitzes succeed when they overload one side and either get to the quarterback or force an errant throw.  If they break contain, though, McDonald can absolutely scramble for positive yardage.  That’s part of the base offense.
Army’s front three therefore need to find a way to collapse the pocket and take options away, which will in turn enable pressure on the quarterback.  If they can do that, then the Black Knights may yet be the first team to slow the run-and-shoot.  If they can’t, this game is liable to be a full-on shoot-out.  Army may still win, but that’s definitely the hard way to do it.

Army vs. Downfield Penalties.  Navy lost their game to Hawai’i in the first quarter.  The Warriors scored first, held Navy to a 3-and-out after a busted pitch play on 2nd down, scored again, and then blocked a Navy punt.  The Mids played okay after that, but by then they were down 21-0.
Army needs to avoid mistakes.  The Black Knights can win if they drive the ball consistently, match Hawai’i’s scoring, and own time-of-possession.  That’s doable if they can avoid the stupid downfield penalties that have set them behind the chains the past two weeks.

CB Elijah Riley vs. WR John Ursua.  Riley shut Liberty WR Antonio Gandy-Golden down last week, and it threw Liberty’s offense completely out of sync.  That offense had put up nearly 600 yards the week prior.  If Riley can do the same to Hawai’i’s Ursua, it ought to have a similar effect.
Ursua and Byrd have the vast majority of Hawai’i’s receptions and yardage.  Slow those guys down, and you’ve gone a long way towards winning this game.

Hawai’i vs. Jet-Lag. It is notoriously difficult to travel from west to east to play a football game, especially an early game.  Saturday’s contest offers an extreme case in point.  For a team that probably needs to get off to a hot start, that could prove decisive.

Final Thoughts
It’d be interesting to see what Army’s offensive personnel could do out of a run-and-shoot set.  Army would still probably run more than Hawai’i does, but I can imagine Hopkins throwing efficiently enough to make this work with Cam Harrison and Kell Walker split wide and Calen Holt or Fred Cooper staying in to either help with protection or take handoffs underneath.  Granted, I don’t think Coach Monken would ever go that way with it, but they absolutely have the right personnel.
Army opened as a 5-point favorite at home, but the line has since slid in the Black Knights’ favor.  Folks seem shocked, but I said on Sunday that I thought Army ought to be favored by about 5 or 6.  Still, I don’t think anybody is sleeping on an undefeated team, especially after Army’s ugly Week 1 loss.  
Truthfully, I like Army’s chances.  I don’t think we’ll see anything fancy; I think the Black Knights will win on sheer blunt force trauma.
Army Football will be honoring the 25th Infantry Division this week, based out of Schofield Barracks, Hawai’i.  Kickoff is at noon.  As with all home games, the telecast will be on CBS Sports.
Go Army!  Beat Hawai’i!!!
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