I tried to be upbeat Saturday morning after the loss to Duke, but I’m starting to think that I might not have been concerned enough. Yeah, Army lost to a tough opponent on the road, and it was a bad spot. There were maybe a few signs of life from the offense. So what? The defense was actively terrible, and more to the point, the rest of the early schedule suddenly looks considerably more challenging than it did just a few weeks ago. I’m a little concerned.
Most fans were counting on a 2-2 start with the road game at Buffalo essentially deciding what kind of season we’re facing. I know a few folks were talking “perfect season” before the Duke game, but I never thought that, and anyway, did you see Oklahoma on Saturday? The Sooners just masterblasted FAU. Worse, we’ve now seen Hawaii twice, and they look phenomenal. Otherworldly, even. And this week’s opponent, Liberty? The Flames just dropped 52 on Old Dominion.
Like Coach Monken says, last year is over. If this year’s Army team can’t get its head out of its ass, time yesterday, they’ll be lucky to start 1-3. And really, this team could easily lose five games before it gets a win, and I’m not sure that any of those would be considered legitimate upsets.
Army Black Knights
Army’s leading rusher coming out of the game was FB Calen Holt. He had 7 carries for 54 yards. But he gained most of that yardage on pitches to the outside, which were basically tendency breakers. You don’t see Army fullbacks taking pitches outside very often. Plebe SB Sandon McCoy also got good yardage, carrying twice for 16 yards. But again, McCoy was kind of an unknown. The more important takeaway was that Duke keyed closely on both FB Darnell Woolfolk and SB Kell Walker, holding those guys collectively to 13 carries for just 28 yards. Basically, the Blue Devils did exactly what I said they should do; they forced Army’s new quarterback to try to carry the load himself.
Once OC Brent Davis started letting Hopkins off the chain, I thought he did okay. Hopkins wound up carrying 16 times for 37 yards, but that included one monster sack. Back out the sack yardage, and he was more like 15 carries for 52 yards, or almost 3.5 yards/carry. That’s maybe not great, but it kept the chains moving.
On defense, Army just couldn’t stop anybody. Sal Interdonato pointed out that Army held Duke to just 13 completions and that 3 of those went for negative yardage, but the Blue Devils also smoked Army deep repeatedly. Maybe it would’ve been different if Woolfolk hadn’t fumbled early, but as it was, the Black Knights forced exactly one stop on the first series of the game, and they held Duke to a field goal after that disastrous first fumble. Then they went missing-in-action. They gave up 6.8 yards/carry to RB Britton Brown and 4.3 yards/carry to QB Daniel Jones, who ran it himself 10 times. That opened up Duke’s downfield passing game, and it was a bad deal after that.
Really, those two lost fumbles hurt. Not only did they give a superior Duke team an early 10-point lead, they also kept Army from establishing an early time-of-possession advantage that, in retrospect, the Black Knight badly needed.We going to bounce back and get better ✊🏾— Kelvin Hopkins (@FindingExcuses) September 1, 2018
On special teams, Army attempted two field goals, missing one wide left and getting one blocked. They also fair-caught a shitload of kickoffs, but they were getting their asses kicked pretty much everywhere, so taking 25 free yards on kickoff returns struck me as a sound business decision.
The Liberty Flames
However, the stats tell a somewhat different story. Yeah, Liberty QB Stephen Calvert went 25/36 for 345 yards and 4 touchdowns, and that’s very good. But Liberty also ran the ball 35 times for 242 yards (6.9 yards/carry), and that was the real difference. RB Kentory Matthews carried 17 times for 101 yards while RB Peytton Pickett added another 10 carries for 87 more yards. Altogether, the Flames put up nearly 600 yards of total offense, though their real explosion didn’t come until the fourth quarter. I’d blame that more on Old Dominion’s lack of defensive conditioning than on any other single factor, but it’s an impressive total regardless.
It must be said that neither team looked particularly crisp. Liberty went just 5/13 on 3rd down, and they also gave up 6 penalties for 58 yards. Had Old Dominion been able to muster more consistent offense, this game probably would have stayed close. As it was, Liberty’s D-Line ate up the Monarch’s running game, especially in the second half, and the Monarchs’ quarterback couldn’t make up the difference through the air. Old Dominion wound up with 129 yards rushing on 39 carries (3.3 yards/carry), but that wasn’t nearly enough when they also gave up 8 penalties for 75 yards and went just 3/16 on 3rd down. The one plus, at least from Army’s perspective, is that Liberty’s leading tacklers were their safeties, Elijah Benton and Isaac Steele. That doesn’t bode particularly well in a matchup against a run-heavy triple option-team.
It must be said that neither team looked particularly crisp. Liberty went just 5/13 on 3rd down, and they also gave up 6 penalties for 58 yards. Had Old Dominion been able to muster more consistent offense, this game probably would have stayed close. As it was, Liberty’s D-Line ate up the Monarch’s running game, especially in the second half, and the Monarchs’ quarterback couldn’t make up the difference through the air. Old Dominion wound up with 129 yards rushing on 39 carries (3.3 yards/carry), but that wasn’t nearly enough when they also gave up 8 penalties for 75 yards and went just 3/16 on 3rd down. The one plus, at least from Army’s perspective, is that Liberty’s leading tacklers were their safeties, Elijah Benton and Isaac Steele. That doesn’t bode particularly well in a matchup against a run-heavy triple option-team.
Several Liberty players sat suspensions during the first half of the game, mostly on the Flames’ D-Line. Once those guys came back, they shut down the Monarchs’ offense completely. FPI ranks Old Dominion’s offense just 111th in all of college football, so maybe we shouldn’t take too much from this one performance, but it was still a comprehensive beatdown in all three phases. It’s not like Liberty struggled to hang just because they’ve started playing a legit FBS schedule.
Took the W #WeBeatODU pic.twitter.com/4USVMtkc3S— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) September 2, 2018
Key Matchup: Army’s O-Line vs. Liberty’s D-Line
I was not overly surprised to see Army throw the ball against Duke’s defense. Even last year when Army really couldn’t pass, the team had to throw to keep Duke’s defense honest. Now they’ve got a guy who actually can throw, and they were facing a team that sees the triple-option every bit as often as any of the service academies do. Pretty much the only plays that worked against the Blue Devils were plays that ran against tendency. In that sense, Army’s base offense never really got on-track.
That shit needs to change this week.
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| Army vs 2018 Schedule: P(Wins) and FPI |
Army also needs to manufacture a pass rush. I don’t want to watch another game where the Black Knights’ secondary tries to cover superior receivers down the field. Honestly, I feel like we know how that ends. It’s only the second game of the season, but with a red hot Hawaii team coming just next week and world-beating Oklahoma on the horizon, the time to get shit together has to be now.
Final Thoughts
Now we find out what this Army team is truly made of. I expect the stadium will be rockin’ on Saturday. What’s more, Army will be wearing the 3rd Infantry Division patch, making it a cardinal sin to lay an egg on the field.
No one wants to fuck with the ghost of Audie Murphy.
ESPN’s power rankings make the line something like Army (-1) before figuring the effects of home field advantage. That ought to make the spread a little more than a field goal, but Vegas opened at Army (-10.5). They clearly know something that I don't, but I still wouldn’t touch that. The game itself is gonna turn on time-of-possession and maybe a couple of big plays. I’ll be really surprised if Army wins by more than that.
Kickoff is at noon. As with all home games, the telecast will be on CBS Sports.
Go Army! Beat Liberty!!!
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