Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Army Football Preview: Buffalo

The Black Knights started their season about as well as we could possibly have hoped.  They smoked Fordham, putting up 60+ points for the fourth time in a calendar year.  Outside of a fumble and two incomplete passes, the day was pretty much perfect.
This week the University of Buffalo Bulls come to Michie Stadium, looking to rebound from an early loss to Minnesota.  If you believe in moral victories, then the Bulls maybe have something to build on, having been competitive for sixty minutes against a legitimate, perennially achieving Big 10 team.  Buffalo still has something to prove, however, and a win against a resurgent Army team would go a long way towards proving it.
The Army Black Knights
Let’s start with a warning: good statistics depend on quality sample size.  We don’t have that.  We have one game.  We haven’t seen the good and the bad in human performance, nor can we consider Fordham an “average” opponent, nor have we seen enough plays to correctly account for the vagaries of chance.  Whatever conclusions we draw from the numbers, they must to be considered strictly preliminary.
But.
With 513 rushing yards, your Army Black Knights are the #1 rushing team in the nation.  On just 47 carries!  Army might’ve smoked Fordham, but amazingly, they did it without winning time-of-possession, nor was it particularly close.  Instead, they blew the Rams off the ball repeatedly, averaging over 9 yards per carry.  That is not the kind of thing you see every day.  In fact, Army currently has the 3rd most efficient offense in FBS college football despite going 0/2 passing[1].  Let that sink in a moment.  They did this while splitting triple-option carries evenly with a slight emphasis on the Fullback Dive.  Quarterbacks carried 13 times.  Slotbacks didn’t start seeing a lot of carries until late in the game.  Considering the way that Fordham (failed to) play the Quarterback Keeper early, this is not cause for concern.
Army’s defense also performed well.  As I mentioned in the recap, it looked to me like they were playing run-first most of the game, even when they were up by thirty or more.  That worked.  Army currently has the 26th-ranked rushing defense, having allowed just 66 yards on 34 carries to one of the best running backs in the history of FCS college football.  The passing defense was a touch less stout, but they still only gave up 240 yards on 41 attempts (72nd) with three sacks, no touchdowns, and an interception.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranks the Black Knights 46th out of 130 FBS teams.  In English, they’d be 3.4-point favorites against an “average” FBS team on a neutral field.  As of this writing, that would-be “average” team is the 62nd-ranked University of Utah Utes.
The Buffalo Bulls
Dropping a close opening game to Minnesota isn’t disastrous, but Buffalo looked nowhere near as good statistically as Army did.  QB Tyree Jackson went 22/42 for 211 yards (52.4%) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  That’s not great, but it might’ve been enough against a Minnesota team that also struggled to move the ball.  However, Buffalo could get nothing going on the ground.  RB Johnathan Hawkins had 10 carries for 21 yards.  Jackson added a few yards with option-reads and a few scrambles, but mostly Buffalo’s offense was an exercise in futility.  
Buffalo scored 7 points but gave up 17.  They stand 118th in the overall FPI, 14.8 points worse than “average”.
The Bulls’ best player is LB Khalil Hodge.  He had a whopping 20 tackles in the opener, 8 solo.  That’s the most by a Buffalo player in the past nine years.  Hodge and company slowed the Gophers’ rushing attack, but they didn’t quite stop it, giving up 169 yards on 51 carries (3.3 ypc).  That ranks them 83rd overall in rushing defense.  
They now face a much tougher test on the ground.
What to Watch
Predicting these early games is tough, but I see the following critical issues and match-ups:
Consistency.  I thought Army was going to smoke Buffalo last year, but then they laid an egg.  Last year’s squad was talented, but they were also young, excitable, and woefully inconsistent.  They were a boom-or-bust team, and at times, it cost them.  It cost them at Buffalo.
In 2017, the team is deeper and older, and it ought to be more consistent, too.  Coach Monken’s first full recruiting class, the Class of 2019, is now in its cow season.  That is huge.  More than anything, the team’s veteran leadership should improve its overall quality and consistency of play.  
LB Alex Aukerman vs. QB Tyree Jackson.  Assuming consistency and a modicum of offensive care with the football from Army, Buffalo’s chances rest heavily on the shoulders of its quarterback.  Jackson is a career 50% passer with as many interceptions as touchdowns, but he still put it up 42 times last week.  He’s also just a sophomore, and at 6’7”, he’s a physical specimen as well.  Really, he is an enormous kid with a gun for an arm.  He just needs to get on track, gain some confidence, and start making plays.
In last year’s game, Jackson started slow but heated up as the game wore on.  He got command of the read-option in the second half, alternating intermediate passes over the middle with just enough zone-reads to keep Army’s defense back on their heels.
Meanwhile, Aukerman came of age in 2016.  Not in this game, though.  He’s got a chance now to show how much he’s grown.  His team is going to need him and LB Kenneth Brinson to pressure Jackson and force mistakes.  
Fullback Dive vs. Buffalo’s Interior D-Line.  Buffalo doesn’t necessarily have a ton of team speed, but they have big players inside.  Last year, Army struggled to get the Dive going early, and though they eventually found some space around the outside, it was tough sledding early.
Army’s O-Line has improved tremendously since last year’s game, but Buffalo’s defense handled Minnesota’s power running game without wilting.  Army needs to establish the Dive this week, or it might have to start throwing the ball to loosen things up.  With Jeff Ejekam suspended again this week, that’s not what we want to see.
Kjetil Cline and Kell Walker.  WR Kjetil Cline makes his first start as a Black Knight on Saturday, and Walker returns for the first time since the Army-Navy game.  It would be nice if Cline’s debut sparked the passing game, but I don’t necessarily think he’ll catch a lot of balls.  Walker, meanwhile, is listed behind SB John Trainor, opposite SB Jordan Asberry. He’s a strong runner with fresh legs who may well make his presence felt.
Final Thoughts
Army should win this game handily, but then, they should have won last year, too.  They were 14 favorites heading into the game, and even with all the mistakes, the Black Knights eventually put together a creditable rushing performance, drove the field, and got into position to kick the winning field goal.  It’s worth noting, in fact, that Army could have taken a shot or two at the end zone as time expired, but they chose to run to the middle and kick.  After that miss, Coach Monken never again put a game in the hands of his kicker.  
Oddshark’s early lines have Army favored by 16.5 points, down from an opening of Army (-17).  The bookies must have taken Labor Day off, though, because they haven’t posted an Over/Under yet.
Saturday’s kickoff is at noon, and as with all Army home games, CBS Sports has the broadcast.  It’ll also be on SiriusXM, Tune-In, and a bunch of local radio stations.  The Black Knights will wear the 10th Mountain Division patch.
Climb to Glory!
Go Army!  Beat Buffalo!!!
1. All of these numbers come from ESPN’s statistics and team efficiencies.
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1 comment:

  1. Danno E. CabezaSeptember 6, 2017 at 5:59 AM

    A couple of quick notes:

    1. The line is still Army (-16.5). The Over/Under is at 48.5. Oddshark says to take Army & the Over. Corrected link: http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/buffalo-army-odds-september-9-2017-791418.

    2. Apparently, SB Kell Walker is now starting ahead of Jordan Asberry & opposite John Trainor. Not sure how much difference that's going to make, nor why the change.

    3. My man CB Elijah Riley is ineligible. Not sure what's going on there, but it sure doesn't sound good.

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