We’re back, folks.
Yup. That’s right. My friend Joe and I are back with another season of preternaturally accurate NFL seasonal predictions. As we did last season, Joe will be covering the AFC over on his blog A Hoosier on the Potomac. I’ll be doing the NFC right here, starting with this week’s post on the Black and Blue Division, the NFC East.
The thing I hate about a lot of prognosticators is that they never hold themselves accountable. Did you predict that Ryan Leaf would be a great quarterback, or that Ereck Flowers could be a dominant left tackle? That stuff should matter. We should hold ourselves to a demonstrable standard of excellence, even when we are—transparently—talking out of our asses.
The thing I hate about a lot of prognosticators is that they never hold themselves accountable. Did you predict that Ryan Leaf would be a great quarterback, or that Ereck Flowers could be a dominant left tackle? That stuff should matter. We should hold ourselves to a demonstrable standard of excellence, even when we are—transparently—talking out of our asses.
Especially then.
But really, I did okay last season. I said that the Cowboys would struggle behind a less-dominant O-Line, and they did. I also said that the Giants were just a few missed defensive plays away from a serious regression despite going 11-5 in 2016. We saw that, too. But I also said that the Eagles would struggle on a disappointing performance from QB Carson Wentz, mostly because I read that he has an awkward throwing motion. I also said that the Redskins would surprise us. Alas, Philly won the Super Bowl, and the ‘Skins were… well, they were the Redskins.
As always, a lot of the know-it-alls are predicting the same finish in 2018 that we saw in 2017. Everyone has the Eagles on top, and most folks are selling the Giants pretty hard after a more-lackluster-than-usual performance from Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense a year ago. But if there’s one thing we can count on in the NFC East, it’s change. The division hasn’t seen a back-to-back winner since 2004. Maybe the Eagles finally break that streak, but honestly, that’s not the way I would bet. Philly wins the offseason every year; they’ve only won the Lombardi Trophy once.
Philadelphia Eagles
Arguably the biggest question for the Eagles on offense is the health of QB Carson Wentz’s knee. He tore his ACL late last season, and that kind of thing used to take as much as a year and a half for full recovery. That’s no longer true thanks to the miracles of modern medicine, but it seems unlikely that Wentz will be at full speed at the start of the season. Luckily for Philly fans, QB Nick Foles has absolutely proven that he can lead the team when he has to. Wentz will presumably start when the season begins, but that’s not been formally announced as of this writing.
The success of the Eagles’ passing game was maybe the most surprising revelation of the previous season. WRs Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor both surprised me. In particular, I cut Agholor off my fantasy team early last season, and that proved to be a bad mistake. Similarly, TE Zach Ertz was absolutely outstanding. Man, that guy is great. Considering that the Eagles’ O-Line should also remain a team strength, really, there’s no reason to expect any kind of drop-off from this offense.
The Eagles defense also played very well last season, obviously, but I’m a bit skeptical of some of their free agent signings. Philly always seems to win the offseason with these kinds of flashy free agent moves, only to see them flame out. I find it annoying that they actually won the Super Bowl—for once—after winning the offseason, too, but I suppose it had to happen given long enough time horizon. Nevertheless, I question how much guys like DT Haloti Ngata and DE Michael Bennett can give over the course of a sixteen game season. Granted, they’re joining a good group of D-Linemen overall. Also: DC Jim Schwartz is very good at generating pass rush. Still, these are the exact kinds of signings that tend to disappoint as the season progresses.
ESPN FPI: +4.7 (2nd)
Over/Under: 10.5
ESPN has the Eagles second behind the Patriots, which is a crime in Week 0. How can you not have the birds first when they just beat the very team they are ostensibly ranked behind? I don’t know that I would play Over 10.5 wins, but the defending champs certainly ought to start the season on top.
Take a closer look at the #Eagles 2018 schedule. #FlyEaglesFly— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) April 20, 2018
More Details: https://t.co/bm3jOIGtth pic.twitter.com/h0duZ5MisR
Dallas Cowboys
We said last season that the Cowboys might regress if their O-Line regressed even a little bit, and that is exactly what happened. It didn’t help when RB Ezekiel Elliot got suspended for a whopping six games, but the fact that just one guy was that important to the offense was problematic regardless. QB Dak Prescott just couldn’t make it happen consistently on his own. This becomes a systemic problem in 2018, and until the Cowboys can find a way to fix it, they’ll stay on the outside of this division looking in.
It doesn’t help that TE Jason Witten retired and that the team cut WR Dez Bryant. This leaves quick passes to WR Cole Beasely as Prescott’s go-to, and that’s not a great place to be. I had Beasely on my fantasy team last year, and trust me, he did jack shit. The guy is a serviceable possession receiver without a doubt, but he’s not gonna break the game open for you.
So. The ‘Boys got RB Tavon Austin from the Rams, apparently with plans to get the ball to him out in space out of the backfield. They then traded with Oakland for FB Jamize Olawale. Their scheme therefore looks to involve a lot of power running, mixed with short passing underneath to Beasley or out to the flat to Austin or maybe Olawale. Granted, this is the kind of scheme that I would like to see Army use a little more to open up the middle for the Fullback Dive, but it’s tough to stretch NFL defenses if you can’t get vertical, and the Cowboys no longer have a true #1 wide receiver. Meanwhile, the pros have entirely too much lateral quickness to rely solely the short stuff, as Ben MacAdoo’s Giants learned the very hardest way possible just this past season.
The Cowboys’ defense is in similar straits. The team has moved some guys around to try to generate more pass rush, but they weren’t better than average last season, and it’s hard to predict an uptick in performance when we can’t name a legit difference-maker on the defensive side of the ball.
ESPN FPI: +1.4 (12th)
Over/Under: 8.5
How can we buy the Cowboys in a year after they fired so many assistant coaches? Head Coach Jason Garrett stayed, along with coordinators Scott Linehan and Rod Marinelli, but they more or less cleaned house otherwise. That’s not a great sign. I suspect that Garrett himself has another year, but Linehan and Marinelli are probably gone in 2019 if the ‘Boys miss the playoffs one more time, and then Garrett himself will be in the crosshairs. The Garrett Hot Seat Watch has become an annual event in Dallas these days, and over time, I expect that gets into a guy’s head.
Today's #CowboysCamp had a couple of repeat standouts who are showing some consistency, including Tyron Smith and Byron Jones.— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) July 30, 2018
📝 https://t.co/ZyKmIHXOPl pic.twitter.com/qyXoJvLtv1
Washington Redskins
Besides Smith, the ‘Skins didn’t do much in free agency. They return a good-looking O-Line with Pro Bowlers at both left tackle and right guard. They also added RB Derrius Guice from LSU in the 2nd round of this past NFL draft. Assuming they can get at least average production out of their wide receiving corps, that ought to serve them well. Folks will probably always have questions about whether Alex Smith can be more than a “game manager,” but if the Redskins build this right, that’s probably all he’ll have to be. He isn’t going to beat himself, anyway, and that counts for a lot when you have a strong offensive line and a new, brand-name running back.
Washington drafted heavy at defensive tackle after being the NFL’s worst run defense last season. It looks like Alabama’s Da’Ron Payne will be their new nose tackle while Virginia Tech’s Tim Settle will come in as a run-stuffing defensive end in their base 3-4 defense. By comparison, the ‘Skins were much better against the pass in 2017 and should continue to be so. An already good pass rush should improve with return of rusher Jonathan Allen, who’ll start opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Payne isn’t a noted rusher, but if he can hold the middle, the Redskins ought to be able to make the rest of this work.
ESPN FPI: -2.3 (21st)
Over/Under: 7
It seems like the Redskins are always a year away, but I really like what they’ve done here. I don’t know that they can beat the Eagles—or the Giants if the G-Men manage to make it work along their offensive line—but I like the ‘Skins a lot more than I like the Cowboys at this point. I don’t know that I’d bet on them to make the playoffs, but they’ve certainly got a shot. The know-it-alls are selling them a little short if you ask me.
— Washington Redskins (@Redskins) July 29, 2018
New York Giants
The prognosticators all wanted the Giants to punt and rebuild, but personally, I don’t think that New York teams should ever rebuild. I mean, look at the Jets. They’ve been “rebuilding” since the Chad Pennington era. Are they any better now than they were ten years ago? When does this rebuilding project end? By comparison, the Yankees refused to rebuild, and now they’re right back on top.
It’s New York. You have to win now. That’s life in the Big City.
With this in mind, I liked picking RB Saquon Barkley at #2 overall. The guy is a freak. He is as good as Beckham, and Beckham got them to the playoffs—practically by himself!—just two years ago. Folks are just not thinking about this correctly. I mean, I get the argument that no running back is worth a #2 pick, I just don’t happen to agree with it. The Jags picked Leonard Fournette at #4 and damn near made it to the Super Bowl with just him and a sock puppet under center. Even at 37, Manning can be better than that, and Barkley has a lot more around him than Fournette did last year.
Granted, a lot of this hinges on how well the rebuilt O-Line plays. The G-Men brought in Nate Solder from New England to play left tackle, drafted guard Will Hernandez in the second round, and have moved Ereck Flowers to right tackle—at least for now. I still don’t know if Flowers can win on the right, or even if he’ll own the starting spot by the end of training camp, but Manning has succeeded in the past with good protection and a strong running game. So I like this plan even though Flowers still needs to play better, and Solder will have to stay healthy.
My last note concerns the quarterbacks. Which is to say that last year’s 3rd round pick Davis Webb looks to have a legit chance at succeeding Manning as the Giants’ starter. Really, I am embarrassingly excited to see Webb play in the preseason. Reports out of mini-caps have been absolutely rapturous. One of the biggest reasons that I’m glad the Giants didn’t draft a quarterback in the first round is because they’re giving Webb a chance to develop. With the addition of Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, Big Blue has two stabs at finding a developmental guy by actually developing him. This strikes me as at least as good an idea as taking a flier on a guy at #2 and hoping for the best.
ESPN FPI: -2.9 (26th)
Over/Under: 6.5
The Giants suffered from a breakdown in institutional culture last year. With better leadership, the whole organization ought to rebound, but it’s kind of a boom-or-bust proposition. Manning is certainly not going to outrun anybody out there, so either the O-Line gives him time, and he plays well, or we wind up rebuilding regardless. I think New York will finish well above six-and-a-half wins, but hey, I’m a Giants’ fan.
Everything you need to know from #GiantsCamp in today’s 2 Minute Drill, presented by @Hublot pic.twitter.com/6BUThtpMBT— New York Giants (@Giants) July 29, 2018
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Ross Tucker and Steve Fezik covered the NFC season win totals a few weeks ago on their sports betting podcast Even Money. It's a good listen even if, like me, you care more about the statistical analysis behind their opinions than the actual bets they recommend. They're doing divisional previews this month, too, but they've not yet reached the NFC East unfortunately.
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