Thursday, August 9, 2018

NFL Preview: NFC North

Welcome back!
This is the third installment of the 2018 NFL Season Preview, a joint project between me and my friend and classmate Smokin’ Joe Sowers over at A Hoosier on the Potomac.  Previous installments can be found at the links below:
 -- NFC North
 -- AFC North
I keep reading that the NFC South is the best division in football.  I don’t see it.  I mean, I’m not sure that the North is gonna send more than one representative to the playoffs, but they have three teams that I think could legitimately make the Super Bowl, and no one would be astounded if that’s how it worked out.
QB Aaron Rodgers is probably the best player in the division.  Hell, he might even be the best player in the League. I’m not sure that makes the Packers the best team overall, but man, it doesn’t mean that they’re not, right?
As we said last week, accountability is key.  I picked the Packers to win the division last year, and that didn’t happen.  It might have, but the Pack looked mortal even before Rodgers got hurt, and they went decidedly downhill when he went out.  I also said that the Lions would be monstrously better if only their defense would play a little better.  But the Lions’ defense was, in fact, a little better, and the team still missed the playoffs by a country mile.  On the other hand, I said that the Vikings would be an elite team if only their O-Line could block, and behold!  They damned near went to the Super Bowl.  Finally, I picked the Bears to go Under 5.5 wins, and that would’ve paid, too.
I’ll call that a 60% success rate.  Sure, the Pack missed, but I’m giving myself partial credit for correctly predicting that their season hinged on their quarterback’s health.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings went 13-3 in 2017 behind QB Case Keenum.  $84M later, they have a new leader in former Redskins’ free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins.  After a season that was already astonishingly good, they now face perhaps the most intense Super Bowl pressure of any team in the entire League.  How much of an upgrade is Cousins?  He threw for 4000+ yards and 25+ touchdowns in each of his last three seasons on a decidedly mediocre team.  If you believe that quarterbacks are the NFL’s most important players, then the Vikings ought to improve immensely.
Not enough for you?  Okay.  Running back sensation Dalvin Cook will also be back at full speed to start the season.  He was averaging almost 5 yards/carry before he got hurt.  Assuming he can stay healthy, he ought to see decidedly less emphasis from defenses in 2018 because nobody wants to stack the box against an $84M quarterback with a proven track record.  That’ll get you beat in a hurry.
Granted, there are always reasons for doubt.  Here’s one: former OC Pat Shumur is now the head coach of my beloved New York Giants.  Shurmur was replaced by Philly quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo.  There’re bound to be some continuity issues there, though I’m not sure how much the actual scheme will change.  With the Philly influence, we will perhaps see more run/pass option looks out of the spread, but even so, I still think of the Vikings as a run-first team.  That won’t change even if the Vikes implement more spread concepts, nor will the team necessarily use less play-action.  Really, what I think you’ll see is a run-first team that looks to spread defenses horizontally and vertically both.  It would help if they had a legit #1 receiver, but they have former Titans’ first round draft pick Kendall Wright.  He’s not terrible, but he’s also not Randy Moss.  The same can be said for most of the Vikings’ receiving corps, though TE Kyle Rudolph was outstanding in 2017.
Still, my optimism relies on a steady continuation of the Vikings’ quality offensive line play, and that might be asking a lot.  It can’t help that the team’s O-Line coach, Tony Sparano, passed unexpectedly at the age of just 56 right before training camp.  I hate to harp on football issues against what is clearly a personal tragedy, but this is a team in the midst of a multifaceted offensive coaching transition, and it’s offensive line is also dealing with a rash of early season injuries at the same time.  That’s tough.  No one’s season has ended yet, and in fact, it looks like most of the key players will be back by at least the middle of training camp, but if the Vikes have a collective team weakness, it’s probably here.
Minnesota’s defense was world class until the playoffs last season, leading the League in both points- and yards-allowed.  The playoffs were a different story, but for now, let’s stay on target.  Maybe the Vikes’ D doesn’t lead the League this season, but they’re still not the reason the team’s gonna lose games.
ESPN FPI: +3.7 (5th)
Over/Under: 10 wins
The NFC looks a lot stronger than the AFC, but the Vikings have as much chance as anyone.  That might also be true of the Eagles and Rams and perhaps of the Falcons and the Packers, too.  I’d still probably take the Minnesota to win their division, though, if I had to make a bet right now.

Green Bay Packers
The Packer went 7-9 in 2017 after losing all-world QB Aaron Rodgers for seven games due to a busted shoulder.  Rodgers says he feels great, but the rest of the team has some issues, and in any event, the guys’ getting a little old to be running in traffic with the football.  Rodgers may very well be the best player in the League, but even he can’t do it all, and the fact that he tries is a big part of what got him hurt.
The biggest question for me is who’s gonna catch Rodgers’s passes.  WR Jordy Nelson is gone.  TE Jimmy Graham has come over from Seattle, and maybe that will help, but he didn’t exactly light it up with the Seahawks.  Expecting him to suddenly reemerge as the player he was two-plus years ago is probably wishful thinking.  Similarly, WR Davante Adams caught 74 passes for 885 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2017, but he also suffered two concussions.  Can the Pack afford to bank on him?  Also: former UTEP standout RB Aaron Jones looked to lead the team’s rushing attack in 2018 after averaging 5.5 yards/carry as a rookie, but then the League suspended him two games for substance abuse.  That leaves Jamaal Williams (3.6 yards/carry in 2017) and Ty Montgomery.
Ouch.
The Packers have two new coordinators, including new DC Mike Pettine, formerly of the NY Jets and Buffalo Bills.  Pettine has a history of getting the most out of his defensive talent, and that can only help.  But the Pack took two cornerbacks in the draft and no pass rushers.  Pettine’s scheme is creative, but he’s still asking a lot from relatively limited talent.
ESPN FPI: +3.3 (7th)
Over/Under: 10 wins
Meh.  I’m selling the Packers.  Losing Jordy Nelson hurts more than folks want to admit.  Rodgers can’t do everything, especially if he doesn’t have anyone to throw to, and with two concussions in just the past year, they ought to have serious concerns about their #1 wideout.  Graham and Jones won’t make up the difference by themselves, especially when Jones himself isn’t even gonna start the season on the field.  For better or worse, this is a team that has to win with offense.  Their defense might play better, but that won’t make them competitive with the Vikings by itself.  Maybe the Pack go 9-7, but it’s asking a lot to get back to the playoffs in an otherwise loaded NFC.


Detroit Lions
Former New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is the new head coach of the Detroit Lions.  I don’t know if he can win there, but he has an excellent track record and a lot to work with.
QB Matt Stafford remains one of the NFL’s best, even if he’s not always at the top of all the offseason “best of” lists.  He’s got the 3rd longest starting streak of all NFL quarterbacks, and he’s completed 66% of his passes for an average of 272 yards/game since 2015.  Those are elite numbers.  The Lions’ primary issue has been their running game, especially in short yardage situations, seemingly forever.  To that end, they signed RB LaGarrette Blount and drafted Auburn’s Kerryon Johnson in the 2nd round.  I never really thought of Johnson is a short-yardage specialist, but he’s a good back, and I expect he will help their team measurably.  The Lions also drafted a new center, and if they can keep their O-Line healthy, maybe all of that will combine to fix their longest-standing problem.
But maybe not.  This is the Lions, after all.
Regardless, the team returns plenty of weapons in the passing game, including WR Golden Tate in the slot.  Whatever else happens, I have trouble believing that Detroit will lose games because they can’t complete passes.  That’s just not been their thing for as long as Stafford has been their quarterback.
Alas, the Lions’ defense was not good last year, especially once NT Haloti Ngata went down in Week 5.  Patricia brings New England’s 3-4 scheme with him, along with the promise to fit it to his opponents’ strengths like he did with the Patriots, and that’s good.  But I still don’t love the players they brought in via free agency.  They have a lot of guys who’re trying to get back from injury or otherwise return to form.  That’s a tough ask in a tough division.  Detroit’s secondary looks real good, but in a division with the Vikings, they might want to shore up their run support, too.
ESPN FPI: 0.0 (17th)
Over/Under: 8 wins
The smart money has the Lions as an average team, but really, I like their chances a little better than I like the Packers’.  Because every team is going to take some injuries, and I think the Lions are better suited to hold up afterwards.  They have to prove it to me in the running game—on offense and defense both—before I’ll believe they can do better than 9-7 this season.  With a guy like Stafford at quarterback, it’s a Hell of a shame that they haven’t found a way to make it work consistently up until now.


Chicago Bears
The Bears have lost ten or more game the last four years in a row. They have a new coaching staff, but you’d have to be a legit diehard to believe a turnaround is imminent.
New quarterback Mitch Trubisky went 196/330 last season for 2,190 yards (59.4%) with 7 touchdowns but also 7 interceptions in his 12 starts in 2017.  His numbers were better than that in college, so maybe he rebounds now that the Bears have added some weapons at the skill positions, but one of his new receivers, Allen Robinson, is coming off a torn ACL.  Meanwhile, Trubisky has QB Chase Daniels looking over his shoulder in the back-up/”mentor” role.  I feel like that’s a strategy that’s as likely to undermine his potential as it is to develop it.  If Trubisky struggles, does the team look to Daniels to turn things around?
Fortunately, the Bears look better at running back.  RB Tarik Cohen can catch passes out of the backfield while Jordan Howard attempts to build on his first two seasons, each of which saw him average a bit more than 1,200 yards on an otherwise bad team.  Will the Bears’ O-Line hurt or help?  They look good outside, but they have some questions in the middle.  Chicago’s center is moving to left guard while Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long is recovering from three separate offseason surgeries, and what’s worse is that there’s not much depth.  That doesn’t necessarily portend disaster, but it’s certainly not a team plus.
Chicago’s defense was kind of anonymous in 2017, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t good.  In fact, they were 10th in yards-allowed and 9th in points-allowed.  Who knew?  DE Akiem Hicks put up a monster 15.5 sacks last year, and the secondary remained stable over the offseason after Chicago resigned both of its corners.  So there’s a plan here; we’re just not sure how well it’s going to come together.
ESPN FPI: -2.7 (24th)
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
If Trubisky improves, then maybe the Bears can win with a run-first/play defense scheme, but that assumes that their O-Line can both outperform and stay healthy, and I don’t know how much I believe that’s what’s gonna happen.  Maybe I’m not giving Chicago enough credit, but I’ll go under 6.5 wins with the caveat that this might be pessimistic if the Bears’ running game has consistent success.

* * *

Milestone Alert: Aficionados of this blog might be interested to know that this is officially the two thousandth post on this here blog.  Two thousand posts!!!

That's all.  Carry on. 
By -
Labels: ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)