Thursday, August 23, 2018

NFL Preview: NFC West

Welcome to the fourth and (presumably) final week of the joint Casa Cabeza / Hoosier on the Potomac NFL Divisional Preview series.  Joe has talked some about doing a bonus fifth week in which we make playoff and Super Bowl predictions, and we’ll probably do that, but this week marks the end of the actual work.  
If there’s a post next week, we’ll be straight talking out of our asses.  I mean, that is usually the plan regardless, but it’ll be even more egregious than usual.
As always, if you missed any of this series, you can find previous posts archived below:
Most preseason prognosticators have the NFC South as the best division in football, but that’s a mistake.  Yes, the Saints and the Falcons are both good teams, but the Panthers are primed for a big step back, and the Bucs are slow motion train wreck unfolding in real time.  Meanwhile, the NFC West has a legit Super Bowl contender, a perennial playoff team, and two young teams looking to take a big step forward.
Can the NFC West put three teams into the playoffs?  Hell yes they can.
Accountability: I correctly predicted that the glory days were over in Seattle last year and that the Cardinals would win games if their offense could score enough points.  Alas, the Cards’ offense struggled at times, but they were arguably the most competitive “bad” team in the entire League.  I also said that I liked what the 49ers had done, though of course, no one saw the Jimmy Garoppolo trade coming.  Finally, I flat missed on the Rams, though to be fair, their turnaround was remarkable.
I’ll call that 70%, with extra points subtracted for excessive derision about Los Angeles.
L.A. Rams
The best thing about Los Angeles’s 2017 season--to me--was that it finally put the lie to the idea that Jeff Fisher is/was a “good” NFL coach.  Before Fisher was fired, QB Jerod Goff looked like he was about to be run out of the League.  Somehow, though, since Fisher’s departure, Goff has emerged as an actual star.
Clearly, the problem wasn’t Jerod Goff.
Head Coach Sean McVay was named the NFL’s Coach of the Year after 2017, and yeah, he probably deserved it.  But also, as a longtime Titans fan, I wasn’t super-surprised to learn that the Rams’ previous coach had been underachieving with a hyper-talented roster.
For better or worse, the Rams are all-in for 2018.  They made massive trades this past offseason, acquiring All-Pro cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib and wide receivers Marcus Peters and Brandin Cooks.  Any one of these guys would’ve been a massive upgrade at his position.  Getting all four of them took virtually the entirety of the Rams’ draft class.  The Rams also signed iconic NT Ndamukong Suh to a 1-year deal.  I don’t love Suh’s game, but man, he is not going to make the team worse.  With all of that, though, this has become a team that absolutely must WIN NOW.
Going all-in like this is perhaps risky, but it makes sense in context with the larger business strategy.  The Rams’ ownership group is spending something like $1B on a new stadium in L.A. while the town itself hasn’t exactly gone crazy for the return of hometown football.  My buddy Chris, for example, is an L.A. native—and a die-hard Raiders fan.  That’s a problem.  The Rams needs to put asses in seats, time yesterday, and they maybe have the quarterback,coach, and assorted skill position players to do it.  The Rams’ ownership now has to hope that a successful Super Bowl run will be enough to cut through the noise on the Left Coast and get people to pay attention to the local team—for once.
With all of that said, the Rams remain a great team.  The offense averaged more than 360 yards/game last year with a run-first approach built around RB Todd Gurley.  To this they added two elite receivers.  As long as the can stay healthy and produce along the offensive line, this team ought to really score points.  Cooks in particular is an elite receiver—hence his price-tag, a #1 pick.
The Rams might also have the League’s best defense.  That was true before they added Suh and two elite cornerbacks.  On top of which, DC Wade Phillips is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the League.
FPI: +3.7 (4th)
Over/Under: 10 Wins
The Rams’ defense has looked pretty good so far in the preseason, though they’ve not shown a lot of offense yet.  So what?  I’m not a big believer in the long-term effectiveness of Suh, but this team has a lot to build on.  I’ll take the Rams to win at least 10 game and the division, too.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle looks like an average team headed into 2018.  QB Russell Wilson is good, but he might not be great, and his team no longer has either the running game or the defense they’d need to get to the next level with just “good” quarterback play.  The Seahawks have a decided defensive identity, but most of the defensive stars of yesteryear have gone, leaving the team in something like a transitional state.  They may well turn it around, but probably not in time to make the playoffs this year.
Coach Pete Carroll seems to want to get back to pounding the rock on offense, and that’s great, but I’m not sure the plan is going to work as designed.  Seattle started by draft SDSU super-back Rashaad Penny, which looked like a good move until Penny broke his finger in the preseason.  He’ll be out for three-to-four weeks following finger surgery.  The Seahawks also upgraded their offensive line with free agent guard D.J. Fluker, so that the whole offense now appears geared towards run-blocking first.  That fits everybody’s strengths, including Wilson’s, but it’s definitely not the way the League is trending.  I’ll be interested to see how the approach works during the year.
If Seattle can’t get Penny going, though, they might have a problem.  Wilson’s main target will again be WR Doug Baldwin.  He’s great, but he can’t do everything.  The team also signed free agent TE Ed Dickson, but he is—not surprisingly—more noted as a run blocker.  So really, either the running game takes off, of these guys are screwed in detail.
Alas, Seattle’s defense looks like a work in progress following the loss of nearly everyone I’d ever heard of.  It’s hard to picture this team succeeding without CB Richard Sherman, but they drafted UCF LB Shaquem Griffin, and that guy is an animal.  CB Tre Flowers from Oklahoma St. can also play, so…  I guess we’ll see.  I’m maybe selling these guys a little too early.
FPI: +0.5 (16th)
Over/Under: 8 Wins
I believe in Rashaad Penny but not as a team’s entire offense.  As they’re currently constructed, the Seahawks look like a lesser version of the NY Giants,with Penny in place of Saquan Barkley and Baldwin in place of OBJ.  That’s not great, honestly.  The ‘Hawks have moved the ball on offense so far this preseason, and Griffin has looked good, but they’ve had trouble scoring touchdowns, and that’s probably going to continue into the season.  I’d play Under 8 wins in a tough division.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers looked terrible last year up until they acquired former New England backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo.  Then, suddenly, they looked like world-beaters.  A five-game winning streak later, and folks are starting to look for the Niners to run deep into the playoffs. 
In fairness, Garoppolo finished last season averaging more than 300 yards/game passing while completing a whopping 67% of his passes.  That’s freaking outstanding!  Meanwhile, WRs Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon are both good enough to stretch the field and make the most of their young quarterback’s talents.  TEs George Kittle and Garrett Celek also looked good once Jimmy G took over.  Really, considering where this team was just a year ago, the turnaround has been remarkable.
RB Jerick McKinnon came over from the Vikings to try to improve the 49ers’s running game, and he’s a good player, though probably not an elite one.  The offensive line also has some big names, including LT Joe Staley and C Weston Richburg.  Rookie Mike Glinchey will probably start at RT after the team took him with the 9th overall selection in the draft.
On offense, at least, all the pieces look to be present.
The 49ers’ biggest questions are on defense. They have a lot of high draft picks on that side of the ball but not a lot of proven production.  Free agent CB Richard Sherman can maybe help anchor things on the outside, but that’s asking a lot from a guy his age who’s coming off multiple surgeries.  To date in the preseason, it’s been the younger players in the secondary who’ve stepped up, though that doesn’t prove much. 
FPI: +1.8 (10th)
Over/Under: 8.5 Wins
Garoppolo seems to have recovered from a weak performance in his first preseason game.  His team chalked up 119 yards, a touchdown, and an interception on a tipped pass in two series worth of work against the Texans.  If their defense can play at least average ball, the Niners might have something here.  They maybe don’t make the playoffs, but I’d probably pick this team to win at least 9 games.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are my darkhorse pick to make the playoffs.  They have a new coach in Steve Wilks, a new presumed starting quarterback in Sam Bradford, and arguably the best player in the 2018 draft in first round pick QB Josh Rosen.  They also have the legendary Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver and all-world RB David Johnson, who ran for 1200+ yards in 2017 and had 2100+ total yards from scrimmage.  Folks, that is a strong nucleus of good players.  The Cards maybe have some question marks, but Bradford is one of the only quarterbacks in the League who can see Jimmy Garoppolo’s 67% completion percentage and actually raise.  
If Bradford can stay healthy this year, look out.
Of course, that’s a big “if” considering that the Cards are trying even now to rebuild their offensive line.  They somehow started with Giants’ castoff G Justin Pugh, and… I mean, I don’t even know what to say about that.  It doesn’t seem like a good idea.  They signed some additional free agents as well, but even in the preseason, this team looks set for a full slate of patchwork O-Line play.  That never works.
Arizona drafted WR Christian Kirk from Texas A&M and RB Chase Edmonds from Fordham.  Both guys are intriguing potential role-players, and Kirk has played well in the preseason, but these aren’t guys who’re expected to change the face of the franchise.
The Cards’ defense was excellent last year, which is why it’s a shame that they’re switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3.  Honestly, I’m a little surprised that Wilks wanted to do that.  Why mess with the one part of the team that’s already working?
FPI: -3.8 (29th)
Over/Under: 5.5 Wins
The Cardinals are actually 2-0 in preseason play, with wins over the Chargers and the Saints.  That’s two good teams.  Rosen in particular went 10/16 for 107 yards and a touchdown against the vaunted Saints.  I don’t know that this is Arizona’s year, but they got a steal at the #10 spot with Rosen, and Bradford can certainly play if they can protect him.  I’m going Over 5.5 wins.  The Cardinals are gonna surprise some people.  Write that down.
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