Army plays at Oklahoma at 7 pm on Saturday on Fox Pay-Per-View. The game costs almost $60. Considering that the Sooners are favored by more than thirty points, I’m gonna say it’s probably not worth the price of admission. Which sucks because Army plays these games almost solely for the purpose of putting its brand in front of a larger national television audience. With the game relegated to PPV, that effort now seems wasted.
What can you do?
My wife says we’re going to some kind of fall festival on Saturday afternoon. The Alpaca Gnomes will be there. But a week without Army Football is like a week without air. Sure, there are other games, and after we get back from watching the Gnomes, I’ll probably watch at least one of them. But none of the ones I’m listing below will have me screaming at my TV. These are just the games that I’ll be following.
Thursday, September 20
Tulsa at Temple - 7:30 PM (ESPN)
A little Thursday night MACtion? The Owls are somehow favored by 8. I guess they must’ve got it together at some point. Last I saw, they’d dropped their home opener to FCS Villanova.
Pick: Tulsa (+6.5)
Friday, September 21
Florida Atlantic at #16 UCF - 7:00 PM (ESPN)
I’m gonna call this the Alex Funderburk Memorial Matchup. Lane Kiffin’s squad doesn’t look quite as strong as they were last year, and they’re for damn sure not sneaking up on anybody. Plus, I think the Knights are looking to make statements this year.
Pick: UCF (-14)
Saturday, September 22
This would look like a trap game for the Bulls were it not a G5 vs P5 matchup. The line on this game is a joke. I mean, I know you really shouldn’t pick against home underdogs, but this is ridiculous.
Pick: Buffalo (-3.5)
Navy at SMU - 12:00 PM (ESPNN)
What kind of team do the Mids have? Are they the squad that got down 28-0 in Hawaii, or are they the team that just beat Memphis on the last play of the game?
The cliché is that “Defense travels.” I think Navy will win this game, but I’m not convinced they win by 8. I don’t trust their defense on the road.
Pick: SMU (+7.5)
UConn at Syracuse - 4:00 PM (ESPNN)
I have this theory that Army is gonna wind up in the Pinstripe Bowl playing Syracuse. Also: this game looks so ugly that as of this writing, there’s no betting line.
#17 TCU at Texas – 4:30 PM (FOX)
TCU recruited me a little to swim. By the time they started calling, I was already in heavy talks with both Harvard and West Point, and I don’t know who turns down either of those schools for TCU, especially to play a non-revenue sport. Regardless, I still pull for TCU occasionally.
Pick: TCU (-2.5)
North Texas at Liberty - 6:00 PM (ESPN3)
UNT QB Nathan Fine looks great, but if I’m reading these stats correctly, North Texas’s running game is garbage. I think Liberty might keep up in a straight shoot-out, especially at home. They have a boig stadium and a strong homefield crowd. If the Flames are smart, they’ll work that running game hard.
Pick: Liberty (+13.5)
#14 Mississippi State at Kentucky - 7:00 PM (ESPN2)
A battle of two SEC undefeateds.
Pick: Kentucky (+10)
That line is crazy. How can you ever bet against a home underdog getting ten points?
Florida at Tennessee - 7:00 PM (ESPN)
My grandfather and both my parents went to UT. Go Vols!
Pick: Tennessee (+4.5)
Air Force at Utah State - 10:15 PM (ESPN2)
Eastern Michigan at San Diego State - 10:30 PM (CBSSN)
Both these games are on a little late for me. I expect SDSU to roll. Meanwhile, Air Force is kind of a mystery. I’d like to watch their game just to get a glimpse of the Zoomies’ defense.
Pick: SDSU (-9.5)
Pick: AFA (+10)
* * *
My rule of thumb for sports modeling is this: if Team A plays Team B, and Team A wins decisively, but your model picks Team B as the better team, your model is broken.
By that simple standard, Football Outsiders’ S&P+ is badly broken.
 |
| Army vs. it's schedule (S&P+). Note: The records are wrong for the undefeated teams. |
1. How the Hell does Army beat an undefeated team and then drop 10 spots? Especially after the team won on defense?
2. Ditto for Navy. They beat FCS Lehigh and advanced 27? Wut?
3. Liberty is ranked 3 spots ahead of Army. They just lost the head-to-head by 24 points.
4. The real problem is this: S&P+ and FPI both have Hawaii around 105th. That’s based almost entirely on the team’s dreadful preseason expectations. But Hawaii is 3-1 with arguably the best offense in the country. They just beat Navy by about 20. Thus, the preseason expectations are too heavily weighted.
5. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst offenses in the country and mediocre special teams. But they’re better than Army and much better than Hawaii? Raise your hand if you believe that.
6. Buffalo and Oklahoma both look scary as hell. Regardless of all this other crap, the Black Knights have a very tough two weeks ahead of them.
Whoever runs this model, be it Football Outsiders or Bill Connelly or whoever, has supposedly tweaked the formula this year to make S&P+ both more responsive to recent results and more reflective of preseason predictions. I suspect that both changes are decreasing the poll’s accuracy, for whatever that’s worth. I discounted it Sunday because I just didn’t think it was reflecting reality in a useful way. FPI, despite it’s distinct Power 5 bias, has been a lot more reliable in the early going this season.
* * *
I know what you're thinking. And it's true. I really should have spent this time working on the new book.
Ugh.
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