This week, the nation’s #2 and #3 service academies square off in a football rivalry game for the ages. No, I’m not talking about the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy at SUNY Maritime. No, I’m not talking about VMI at the Citadel.
It’s Navy-Air Force Week!
*sigh*
I know, right? I wasn’t really expecting to be here, either. I was planning to run another 5 Things on a Bye Week post, but when I polled the audience, you guys were a good bit more fired up about this week’s heel-on-heel matchup than you were about my random musings on Army Football’s State of the Season. It was actually pretty even on Twitter, but my classmates on Facebook were way more interested in Navy-Air Force, and here we are. Alas, some of them actually live out in Colorado.
— Danno E. Cabeza (@Dan_T_Head) October 1, 2018
I should point out that several folks on FB asked me to do both. I do not think I’ll have the time, unfortunately.
Note: Because Air Force is a home underdog, I decided to write this week’s preview from their perspective. That doesn’t mean I’m necessarily going to root for the Zoomies, but in all honesty, I can’t imagine rooting for the Squids. Similarly, it seems wrong to root for a broken femur, but if there is a femur that gets broken, well…
Schadenfraude is a thing, am I right?
Air Force Falcons
Ouch!
Part of the problem is that Air Force doesn’t really have a quarterback. They some quarterbacks, sure, but they don’t have The Guy that they can trust to lead the team down the field. Former ace QB Arion Worthman has fallen from favor. He’s just 6/16 passing for 77 yards (37.5%) with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also carried 29 for a measly 88 yards (3.0 yards/carry) and just a single touchdown. Worse, Worthman has struggled with fumbles. He put the ball on the turf twice in the home loss to Nevada, and from what I understand, that’s been about what Air Force fans have come to expect from him this season. But the other guys aren’t necessarily playing better. QB Isaiah Sanders is probably the best thrower at 17/30 for 289 yards (56.7%) with a touchdown and an interception, but he’s only averaging 2.5 yards/carry. QB Donald Hammond III came in against Nevada and led a good-looking comeback effort, but even he’s only completing 40% of his passes and averaging just 3.6 yards/carry. Though I expect Hammond to start this weekend, none of that is really good enough for a run-first triple-option team.
Not that Air Force can’t run the ball. Actually, they’ve run 270 times for 1,019 (3.8 yards/carry) with 10 touchdowns, led by FB Cole Fagan and SB Kadin Remsberg. Collectively, those guys have carried 89 times for 388 yards (4.4 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns. Add in ace SB Ronald Cleveland’s 4.2 yards/carry, and that’s decent if not outstanding production. But the Zoomies are converting just 24/71 (33.8%) on 3rd down. It’s tough to win like that if you’re not getting some big plays down the field and also turning the ball over a bit more than you’d like.
What’s weird is that the Zoomies’ defense has improved notably despite the offense’s inconsistency. That’s not what we’d expect out of a service academy. Army especially thrives on complementary football. But Air Force is getting it done despite its offense. Sure, they’re giving up 282.8 yards/game passing with 9 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions, and that might be a problem if Navy could throw the ball. However, Air Force has allowed just 394 yards rushing on 117 carries (3.4 yards/carry), good for an outstanding 98.5 yards/game on the ground, all while getting good penetration into the backfield. More to the point, teams have converted just 20/51 3rd downs (39.2%) and just 1/6 4th downs (16.7%), and for all of Air Force’s fumble problems, they’re still +1 for the year on turnovers.
If you were gonna build a defense specifically to beat Navy, this is definitely how you’d start.
— USAFA (Official) (@AF_Academy) October 1, 2018
Navy Midshipmen
For better or worse, this year’s Midshipmen team looks a lot like last year’s Army team did, at least on offense. The Mids lead the nation in rushing with 355 yards/game, but they’re last or close to last in passing with just 76.8 yards/game. On the year, Perry is just 5/16 passing (31.3%) for all of 106 yards with a touchdown and an interception. I haven’t watched a ton of Navy football this season, but Perry looks noticeably less polished than Army QB Ahmad Bradshaw did in 2017, and... I mean, we all love Bradshaw, but he had a certain skillset, and it wasn’t dropping dimes through the air.
Perry’s worse than that—obviously so.
Perry’s worse than that—obviously so.
But again, Perry has a certain skillset. You look at Navy’s offense, and sure, it’s technically an Inside Veer coming out of a spread set, but they run it to Quarterback Power off-tackle on about half of their offensive plays. Where Army surges forward from the snap via the Midline Option, Navy quarterbacks usually take a step back and to the side, giving the play in front of them a chance to develop. With Will Worth and Keenan Reynolds, both of whom were polished passers, you had to really respect all three phases but especially the potential Speed-Option Pitch outside. Perry, though, is both the fastest guy on the field and a lot less polished handling the football. Meaning that if defenses can get penetration and get to Perry, the play is pretty much dead behind the line. We’ve seen that a lot, and it actively cost Navy the game against Hawaii. On the flipside, if Perry gets outside and turns the corner, he’s probably gonna go all the way for a touchdown. Either way, the best move is always to go right after Navy’s quarterback.
This is how we get QB Malcolm Perry leading all Navy rushers with 86 carries for 530 yards (6.2 yards/carry) and 6 touchdowns on a team that’s just 2-2. Perry has carried or thrown on fully 35% of his team’s offensive snaps, and he hasn’t played in nearly 25% of the total season. He didn’t play the last few series in Hawaii when the team was trying to throw, he didn’t play most of a half against Lehigh because of the blowout, and he missed almost half of the SMU game because of an injury. By comparison, Navy top two fullbacks have carried a grand total of 59 times for 250 yards (4.2 yards/carry). Really, they’ve been pretty effective, but unless backup/passing QB Garrett Lewis is in there, they just don’t get the rock much.
If your choice is letting the Fullback Dive go for 4 or 5 yards or letting Malcolm Perry get 50, that’s not actually a hard choice defensively. But the Mids are just 25/59 (42.4%) on 3rd down. That’s not terrible, but it does speak to their tendency to get behind the chains on offense, especially considering that they’re an excellent 8/12 (66.7%) on 4th down.
On defense, Navy’s been all over the place. They’ve allowed just 230.3 yards/game passing with 10 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, and that’s terrific. However, they’re also allowing 159.8 yards/game rushing (5.6 yards/carry), which could be a problem in Colorado Springs. Notably, however, the Mids have been very good at creating turnovers. They’ve forced 10 fumbles and recovered 7, and they have an interception. So despite 7 fumbles (5 lost) and 4 interceptions, Navy is an amazing +5 in total turnover margin. That would concern me if I was an Air Force fan considering how much the Zoomies have struggled to hold onto the ball.
Heartbreaker .. Navy Loses in OT 31-30 pic.twitter.com/tYSuUDHg9a— Navy Football (@NavyFB) September 22, 2018
Key Matchups
The team that runs the more consistent offense and makes the fewest mistakes is the one that’s gonna win.
But that’s obvious, right? Let’s dig a little deeper.
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| Army P(Wins) vs. the 2018 Schedule: Bye Week. |
Air Force Defense vs. Navy’s O-Line. Air Force’s rushing defense has gotten good penetration at times this season, even against dynamic offenses like FAU’s. That, to me, is the key. If the Zoomies can get to Malcolm Perry before he has time to plant and get upfield, they can get Navy into negative yardage plays. That’s how Hawaii beat the Squids. Not only will this control Navy’s most dangerous player, it’ll get their offense off the field, too.
Even if the Zoomies give up some occasional yards to the fullback, those occasional negative yardage plays could still change the complexion of this game.
Air Force Offense vs. Itself. For service academy triple-option teams, neither of these squads has been overly consistent. But Air Force has been worse. A more consistent, less mistake-filled effort would’ve beaten both FAU and Nevada. Against Nevada in particular, QB Arion Worthman had a miserable strip-sack in his own end that pretty much cost his team the victory.
Personally, I’d probably argue that Air Force is trying to do too much pass blocking and not running their--very good--fullbacks quite enough to control the opposing pass rush. But I know the Zoomies want to run a more balanced offense than either Army or Navy, so I’ll just say that it’s better to take a sack and punt than to cough up the ball in your own end. It’s damned frustrating, though, to watch those guys get good chunk plays in the middle but then drop back to pass and get flattened.
Ronald Cleveland Ratio. Cleveland is probably the Zoomies’ best offensive player. But he’s fourth in total carries, and he only has just 8 receptions for all of 66 yards. Air Force needs to find ways to get the ball into his hands.
Final Thoughts
The line on this game opened at Air Force (+3) but has since slid to Air Force (+3.5) with the vig pointing higher still. I don’t know that I’d touch that, but at Over/Under 49.5, I’d smash the Over. Last year’s game ended 48-45 Navy, and most of those same players are still there for both teams.
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| Army S&P+ vs. the Schedule at the Bye Week. I have some issues with this, but since we didn't do 5 Things on a Bye Week, I may never get the chance to write about them. |
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| Duty, Honor, Country |
We may beat Air Force once a year, but we beat Navy always and forever.
Kickoff is at 3:30 pm. The game will be on CBS Sports.
Go Air Force! Beat Navy!!!
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