5 Things on a Friday: A Scorcher Coming Monday

The Class of 2022 starts on Monday.  Feel old yet?

I’m just gonna drop this here. In case somebody’s maybe planning to stand outside in uniform all day on Monday. For some reason...#RDay

“Drink water New Cadets!” pic.twitter.com/HzJK7uyMue

— Danno E. Cabeza (@Dan_T_Head) June 28, 2018

1. What’s the Yield Curve? ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention (NY Times)

[W]hen an economy seems in good health, the rate on the longer-term bonds will be higher than short-term ones. The extra interest is to compensate, in part, for the risk that strong economic growth could set off a broad rise in prices, known as inflation. Lately, though, long-term bond yields have been stubbornly slow to rise — which suggests traders are concerned about long-term growth — even as the economy shows plenty of vitality.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has been raising short-term rates, so the yield curve has been “flattening.” In other words, the gap between short-term interest rates and long-term rates is shrinking.

A flat or inverted yield curve signals a recession because it indicates that business leaders are less enthusiastic about their long term prospects than they are about their immediate situations.

2. Koreas discuss removing North’s artillery from tense border (AP)

The rival Koreas are discussing the possible relocation of North Korea’s long-range artillery guns away from the tense Korean border, South Korea’s prime minister said Monday, as the countries forge ahead with steps to lower tensions and extend a recent detente.

If realized, it would be yet another conciliatory step by North Korea since it entered talks on giving up its nuclear weapons earlier this year. But some experts say it might be a tactic to push Seoul and Washington to withdraw their more sophisticated artillery systems from front-line areas in return for pulling back its outdated conventional weapons.

I have been and will remain quite skeptical of the DPRK’s desires for peace, especially in light of the recent news that they’re actually working toexpand their nuclear capabilities right now.  But a verifiable agreement to withdraw their long-range artillery would be a legitimate step forward.  It takes more cynicism than I’m willing to countenance to refuse to give peace any chance at all.

It is fair, however, to ask what success looks like in this context and to be honest about it.

3. College Football's Top 20 Teams on the Rise for 2018 (Athlon)

The [Buffalo] Bulls are on the cusp of a breakthrough year in coach Lance Leipold’s fourth season. After a 2-10 record in 2016, Buffalo improved to 6-6 last fall and finished 4-4 in MAC play. The driving force behind the four-game jump in wins was an offense that averaged 28.5 points a contest – up from 16.5 in 2016… Leipold’s group returns All-MAC linebacker Khalil Hodge and standout lineman Chuck Harris for 2018.

Temple, Tulane, and Iowa State are also listed.  I might’ve argued that the Cyclones broke out last year, but what can you do?  The rest of this list is mostly already big-time.

4. College Football Top 130 Team Rankings for 2018 (Athlon)

65. Duke
Under coach David Cutcliffe’s watch, Duke rebounded to 7-6 overall last season and wasn’t far from a couple more victories with four losses by seven points or less. A return to .500 or better in ACC play seems to be within reach this fall. New defensive co-coordinators Ben Albert and Matt Guerrieri take over a unit that finished third in the ACC in fewest points allowed (20.3 ppg) and returns two All-Americans in linebacker Joe Giles-Harris and cornerback Mark Gilbert… Quarterback Daniel Jones returns, and running back Brittain Brown is a breakout candidate. Jones returns four out of the top five statistical receiving options from last year, but the line will be revamped with just two returning starters...

57. Army

Junior Kelvin Hopkins is slated to replace quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw this season, and the backfield is stocked with options, including Darnell Woolfolk, Andy Davidson and Kell Walker. Even with a revamped offensive line, it’s unlikely the ground attack -- No. 1 in college football last season -- will missed a beat in 2017. Army’s defense held opponents to just 22 points a game last fall and should be solid once again. Standout linebacker Alex Aukerman and lineman John Voit are the unit’s biggest losses, but linebackers Cole Christiansen and James Nachtigal are back…

This is the highest I’ve seen the Black Knights ranked in any national poll, and it seems to be based more on projected overall records than on competitive power rankings.  Nevertheless, Athlon likes Army to upset the Blue Devils in the opener.  Oddshark agrees, though Vegas has the Black Knights (+11) at most books.

Screenshot from Oddshark's look-ahead

That’s not a bad bet.

5. Reception Day (aka R-Day) is coming for Class of 2022 (GoBlackKnights.Com)

The current seniors (minus Bryce Holland) arrived on campus on June 30, 2015. There were a total of 79 incoming plebes with 30 coming in direct from high school and the remaining 49 from USMAPS. Of the 30 who came in direct, 10 remain on the roster (33%), while 12 seniors remain on the roster from the 49 who came from USMAPS (24%). Attrition here refers to football only and we know that many of those who dropped from the team remained at USMA.

How many of each group had an early impact? Thirteen plebes coming out of USMAPS (26.5%) earned their varsity letter as plebes, while 8 of the 30 direct reports (26.6%) earned varsity letters as plebes; so the potential impact was about equal for players from both sources.

I got really into this.  I would’ve expected the USMAPS plebes to contribute way more based on their knowledge of the system and on having had a year to prep for the college game.  I will therefore take this as a sign that the current coaching staff is good at developing overall potential quickly, which is amazing if you think about it.

The rest of the article is a good read.  Bottom line, as the team itself improves, it’s getting harder to make an immediate impact.  No surprise really, but it does speak to the potential of guys like WR Cam Harrison, who still managed to make a splash last season.  I’m expecting big things from Harrison in 2018.  His is one of the more interesting stories this season.

While we’re talking about R-Day, I should maybe note that there are at least a half-dozen of my classmates’ kids entering the Academy next week.  That is amazing, though it’s no secret that the Army has become something of a family business over the last two decades or so.

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That’s all I’ve got, folks.  Enjoy the weekend!