Friday, July 6, 2018

5 Things on a Friday: We Take an Easy Week

This felt like a slow news week up until yesterday afternoon.  But as much as I'm personally happy that Scott Pruitt is finally leaving the EPA, I don't have anything to add to the story beyond the basics.  I searched for additional stories of relative importance but still didn't find very much.  

 So this week’s post is a lot of college football and a bit of D&D.  Yay?

1. Industries in U.S. Feel Undermined By Trade Policies (NY Times)
Even as the president’s pro-business stance is broadly embraced by the corporate community, in some significant cases the very industries that Mr. Trump has vowed to help say that his proposals will actually hurt them. They also warn that policies designed to aid one group will eat into someone else’s business in ways that policymakers should have anticipated.
I ran this solely because I wanted to run something that was at least moderately newsy.  But really, this is an opinion piece masquerading as a front page article, and it’s frustrating.  The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market.  But.  If business leaders were legitimately worried for the future, we’d see that as a hard correction in the markets.  However, we’ve seen nothing even remotely like that, and until we do, this kind of reporting is the same wishful-thinking news that's come out of the Times since the president was elected.  And I don’t even like this president.
Is there a potential issue here?  Yes.  Is it mostly still theoretical?  Also yes.
Really, until the Dow loses 20%, we’re wasting our time with this crap.
2. Joey Chestnut wins 11th Nathan's title with record 74 hot dogs (ESPN)
Joey "Jaws" Chestnut extended his reign as champion eater at the Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest on Wednesday, downing a record 74 wieners and buns in 10 minutes to take home the coveted Mustard Belt for an 11th time.
Miki Sudo held onto her title as the top women's competitor at the annual Brooklyn eat-off, chomping 37 franks and buns to take home the top prize for an unprecedented fifth consecutive year.
For his victory, Chestnut walks away with $10K and an actual championship belt.  That strikes me as a very small amount of money for an event that will almost certainly have long-term impacts on Joey's health.
3. Preview 2018 Bowl Projections & College Football Playoff Picks (College Football News)
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Saturday, December 15
5:30, ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Projection: Western Michigan vs. Army*
*No Sun Belt team projected available
Seems unlikely since this would be exactly a week after the Army-Navy Game, but it’s an interesting match-up.
A couple more of interest:
Birmingham Bowl
Saturday, December 22
12:00, ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
American Athletic vs. SEC
Projection: UCF vs. Tennessee

 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Saturday, December 22
3:30, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
American Athletic vs. Big 12
Projection: Navy vs. Iowa State
Everybody and their brother is projecting Navy to the Armed Forces Bowl, so I guess that’s some kind of official tie-in.  If the Cyclones have another year like they had in 2017, however, I don’t love the Mids’ chances.
Also: UCF would absolutely smoke this current Volunteers squad.  It would not be close.  In fact, unless the Vols get their act together before 2022, I think Army might have a shot against them in their own building.
If you’re interested, College Football News also has individual team previews for Army & Navy.  There’s nothing new, especially if you follow this blog, but they do confirm at some length that Navy’s season rests more-or-less entirely on the shoulders of QB Malcolm Perry.
4. The Unintended Consequence That Ruined Fourth Edition D&D’s Chance of Success, But Proved Great for Gamers (DM David)
By 2006, the license to publish Dragon and Dungeon neared its end, but Stevens and publisher Erik Mona felt sure a renewal would come. “With subscriptions on the rise, and powerful wind in our sails from the Shackled City and Age of Worms Adventure Paths, there seemed little reason for concern.”
But Wizards made other plans for the magazines. Their fourth-edition business strategy depended on luring monthly subscribers to D&D Insider. Electronic versions of Dragon and Dungeon would add value to that program.
On May 30, 2006, Stevens learned that she would lose the license.
Paizo went on to build Pathfinder out of the ashes of their burnt business model and the leftover design notes for what might have been D&D 3.75, and it really took off.  At the same time, Wizards flooded the market with 4e material that was decidedly love/hate with fans.  
I taught my kids to play with 4e, and with its Power Cards concepts, teaching some of the nuisances was fairly easy.  But 4e was very much an over-detailed combat simulator, where D&D’s strengths are more in its ability to be fantasy improv goofiness with your friends.
Alas, we haven’t played in forever.  There never seems to be time to sit down for four hours and bang out a game, and if we try to get the girls’ friends involved, I’ll have to teach them from the ground up.  Somehow, that always gets pushed off until Next Weekend...
5. 2018 freshman class arrives (Army Football Insider)
Pretty even split between Army Prep (40) and direct admits (39).
Twitter follower Dan Cabeza noted the run of tall receivers in this class from Michael Robertsnew (6-foot-4) and Jalen Moy (6-foot-4) from Army Prep and Cameron Johnson (6-4) and Daniel Zuloaga (6-foot-5) direct.
Yes, Dan Cabeza is me.  
For what it’s worth, seventy-nine plebes strikes me as a good haul.  In particular, thirty-nine seems like a lot of direct-admits.  
I don’t have evidence to back this up, but from the outside, it looks like the coaching staff put a bit more emphasis on academics in recruiting than did in the past.  That is probably a good idea.

If that's not enough for you, Hero Sports just released "Ranking the Top 100 College Football Teams for 2018". I'm pointing it out because I've seen a number of these rankings recently, this one is entirely typical, and they all have Army ranked somewhere in the mid-50s overall. This is quite an improvement from previous seasons, and it's notably higher than either ESPN or SB*Nation have the Black Knights based on their more mathematical power rankings.

Vegas still has Army at something like +11 against Duke, while most of the preseason prognosticators make the opener quite a bit closer.  Oddsshark makes it closer as well.

The computer models are nervous about Army's change at quarterback and about the Black Knights' relative recruiting strength.  Most of the actual people, though, think that Coach Monken has earned the public's trust, and here we are.  I continue to think that Army (+11) at Duke represents good value, but I'm quite nervous about heading down the rabbit hole of real life college sports gambling.


* * *
Notes:
1. This week’s installment of Swim, Bike, Run, Live, Love, Repeat is one of my favorites.  Alas, it didn’t do particularly well in terms of readers or generate even a quarter of the conversation that some other recent installments have generated, perhaps because I published it at 5:00 am on the 4th of July.
I hope that you fine folks were just on a break from social media.  If that’s the case, fine.  But do me a favor and get caught up, okay?
Thank you.
2. Wednesday’s key workout came off very well.  I wound up swimming almost four miles in an hour-twenty.  Granted, with a very strong following current.  
Wednesday's swim route went a bit longer than planned.
We started about midway down Russian Beach and wound up having to take a much wider turn around the lighthouse penninsula than I’d planned, and that added about a half-mile, mostly against the current.  That put my mile at almost 29:00.  Once we’d cleared the head, though, we were able to pick up the pace.  My second mile was almost exactly 21:00, and my third mile was a sub-world record pace (!) 14:40.  This came just as we were getting into the Housatonic River.  The final piece was just over 18:00, which is also blazing fast.  Three cheers for following currents!
Anyway, I mention all of this because we still need your support for the Swim Across the Sound.  The race itself is August 4th, and for once, I feel ready to blaze away.
Do me a favor and donate to the Swim.  I’ll let you know how it goes, trust me.
That’s all I’ve got.  Enjoy the weekend!
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