Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Army Football Preview: at Buffalo

Four weeks into the season, the Black Knights are 2-2.  That’s not great, but it’s about where most fans expected the team to be.  Really, outside of their first half at Duke, they’ve played pretty well.  They couldn’t quite close with the Blue Devils after that shaky first half, but they came back to beat Liberty soundly and hand Hawaii their lone loss, and then they mighty Oklahoma a bad scare in their own building.  
Now the Army Team needs to find a way to win some games.
In fact, Army needs to win at least three of its next five.  Because only one FCS game will count towards bowl eligibility and because the Navy game comes after bowl invitations are announced, Army will need to carry at least five wins into the final three contests to ensure postseason play.  That’s doable, to be sure, but it makes this week’s game at Buffalo even more important.
Not that the game wasn’t already important.  Buffalo is a team on the rise, a potential favorite to win the MAC, and a regional recruiting rival within New York State.  Like all of Army’s foes this season, they come into this weekend’s tilt undefeated.

Army Black Knights
The good news is that this young Army team has improved noticeably in every game.  That’s been especially true for QB Kelvin Hopkins and his talented O-Line.  I honestly gave those guys no chance to move the ball consistently against Oklahoma’s stout front four, but they proved me wrong with authority.  Army rushed for an astounding 339 yards (4.3 yards/carry) against the Sooners.  Overall, the team currently stands 4th in rushing with an average of 314 yards/game.  They augment this with another 115 yards/game passing, which is still last in college football but good for an average of 429 yards/game in total offense and more than 40 minutes average time-of-possession.  Army’s scoring hasn’t broken out just yet, owing to the quality of the defenses they’ve played, but they’re in plus territory, putting up an average of 25.3 points/game (96th) while allowing just 24.3 (65th).  They’ve faced the 16th, 24th, and 38th ranked scoring offenses respectively in Oklahoma, Hawaii, and Duke, so really, giving up just 24.3 points/game isn’t too bad.  It’s a lot better than anyone else has done against that particular trio, anyway.

 Cow QB Kelvin Hopkins has emerged as a legit playmaker.  He’s currently 21/46 passing (45.7%) for 460 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.  Those numbers don’t sound great, but they’ve been good enough to add a new dimension to Army’s offense, and notably, Hopkins has taken care of the football.  His two interceptions came on last-gasp 4th down plays at Oklahoma.  Hopkins also leads the team in rushing with 73 carries for 308 yards (4.3 yards/carry).  That’s 27.5% of the rushing workload by snap count—maybe a bit more than optimal but nowhere near overwhelming.  More importantly, Army’s new quarterback has gotten visibly more comfortable pounding the rock in traffic.  His pitch pump-fake to score from 5 yards out at Oklahoma was a thing of beauty.  He and Army’s new offensive line have hit their stride just in time for the most important game to date this season.
Army fullbacks continue to carry the load.  The unit has 136 carries for 662 yards (4.9 yards/carry), accounting for fully 52% of Army’s offense by both snap count and overall production.  FB Darnell Woolfolk leads the group with 64 carries, mostly tough sledding against stout interior D-Lines lines, but FB Calen Holt has the best  average with 6.6 yards/carry.  Alas, FB Andy Davidson’s carries are down this year, though he played a bit more against Oklahoma.  I continue to think that Davidson is the quickest of this group to the hole, and with that in mind, it won’t surprise me if we see a bit more of him this weekend.  By comparison, Army slotbacks have seen less work.  Collectively, the group has 50 carries for 282 yards (5.6 yards/carry; 18% of total rushes).  SB Kell Walker leads with 25 carries, but SB Jordan Asberry actually has the best average with 7.2 yards/carry, followed by emerging talent Fred Cooper at 6.9.  Walker also leads all receivers with 6 catches for a whopping 117 yards.  For better or worse, Kell Walker is clearly Hopkins’s most-trusted target.
Army’s defense doesn’t look great statistically, but they’ve done what they’ve been asked to do.  For example, they’ve given up 525 yards rushing on just 96 carries (5.5 yards/carry), and that’s not ideal.  But they’ve been truly excellent in goal line and short yardage situations, holding opponents to 9/31 on 3rd down (29%) and 1/4 on 4th down (20%).  Consider who they’ve played and then compare that to Army’s own offensive numbers—35/68 on 3rd down (51.5%) and 13/15 on 4th down (86.7%)—and we see why this team wins.  They hold the ball on offense, and they get teams off the field on defense.  Add in 7 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions (+1 total turnovers), and what we get is a unit that’s been very successful at assignment football.  They’ve given up some yards, it’s true, but they’ve also made the most of their opportunities in big spots.
At this point, Army’s biggest issue is its special teams.  Kick coverage hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen in past seasons, and Army kickers are just 1/3 on field goal attempts with 2 very costly blocks.  Army lost at Buffalo two years ago in overtime following a missed chip-shot field goal.  This could yet become a serious issue.
Buffalo Bulls
As expected, the Buffalo Bulls have been outstanding this season.  The team now stands 4-0 with wins over FCS Delaware State, slow-starting Temple, resurgent Eastern Michigan, and Power 5 bottom-feeder Rutgers.  Buffalo absolutely pummeled Rutgers this past Saturday, winning 42-13 via an obvious talent disparity.  

 The game was not remotely close.


Third year QB Tyree Jackson has been the headliner, but the Bulls have a lot more going for them than just Jackson.  After four weeks, Jackson is 78/126 passing (61.9%) for 1,052 yards and 15 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.  He hasn’t had to run this season, he’s a big guy at 6’7”, 245 lbs., and he can be surprisingly mobile.  Meanwhile, three backs have split time for the Bulls.  RB Kevin Marks leads with 57 carries for 282 yards (4.9 yards/carry) and 5 touchdowns.  He’s followed by Jaret Patterson and Emmanuel Reed, each of whom have just over 30 carries.  To date, Patterson has been a little better, putting up 5.3 yards/carry and 3 touchdowns.  The Bulls run a decidedly balanced offense, rushing on just over 53% of their offensive snaps.  They’re currently averaging 265.8 yards passing/game (44th) and 163 yards rushing/game (85th). They’ve converted 22/55 3rd downs (40%) and 7/12 4th downs (58.3%).  That’s not terrible, but it’s arguably the team’s biggest statistical weakness.
Defensively, the Bulls have been an attacking, opportunistic bunch.  They’ve given up an average of just 351 yards/game and just 20.0 points (36th).  The Bulls’ defense succeeds by creating chaos.  They have 11 sacks, 3 interceptions, and a whopping 8 (!) forced fumbles.  If there’s a bright side for Army, it’s that Bulls’ rushing defense is not nearly as good as its pass defense.  They’ve given up 572 yards on 164 carries, good for an average of 3.5 yards/carry with 4 rushing touchdowns.  That’s not bad, but it’s not in the same league as the run defense Army just faced at Norman, Oklahoma.
Still, the Bulls’ D-Line is big and increasingly athletic, and they have a truly exceptional linebacker in senior LB Khalil Hodge.  Hodge already has 47 tackles this season, including 15 against Rutgers—6 solo and 1 tackle-for-loss.  Hodge is followed by S Joey Banks, who has 17 tackles, including 8 against Rutgers with 5 solo.  I should probably also point out DE Chuck Harris, who has 21 tackles on the season and an astounding 5 sacks.  That’s a lot of production at defensive end for this point in the season.
Two things stand out about Buffalo’s special teams.  First, they’ve only attempted 1 field goal.  Second, they’ve allowed 228 kickoff return yards on just 10 attempts, against just 156 kickoff return yards of their own.  Army has fair-caught a lot of kickoffs this season, but we may well see that streak end this week.
Key Matchups
Army’s O-Line vs. Buffalo’s D-Line.  It’s hard to believe that the Black Knights could get good push against the Sooners’ but then struggle against the Bulls.  But they struggled against the Bulls last season, and last year’s Bulls team was nowhere near as good as this one is.  In previous years, Buffalo’s defense was big but, save for Hodge, not particularly athletic.  Now they’re both, and what’s worse is that this is a team with deep institutional knowledge of the triple-option.
If Army’s O-Line can get the Dive going and give the offense room to operate, then the Black Knights have as much chance in this game as they have in any game.  Last year, though, the team had to throw a bit to loosen these guys up, and even then, it took a couple of big plays outside to Kell Walker before Ahmad Bradshaw started running wild.  
The good news is that this year’s offensive line is coming together nicely.  They’re maybe not quite the machine that last year’s group was at the end of the season, but they’re big and young, and as a group, they probably have a higher ceiling.

Army P(Wins) & FPI vs. the 2018 Schedule

Army Defense vs. Buffalo’s Running Game. Jackson is good, but he threw for just 50% against Rutgers, and he’s probably not accurate enough to win the game without heavy run support.  Witness the team’s 40% conversion rate on 3rd down.  Meanwhile, Buffalo’s got a pair of big, fast running backs—exactly the kinds of guys who give Army’s defense problems.
If Army can keep the Bulls’ running game in check, then they can probably get the Bulls off the field often enough to let the Black Knight offense grind out a win.  If the Bulls run with authority, though, this could be a long day.
Army vs. Turnovers. The Bulls have forced 8 fumbles.  That cannot happen Saturday.
Buffalo vs. Their Schedule.  You can only beat who you play, but…  
Buffalo beat FCS Delaware State, who have yet to win a game.  They beat Temple the week after Temple dropped their home opener to FCS Villanova.  They beat Eastern Michigan, and yeah, EMU is good.  They’re not in any danger of taking Oklahoma to overtime, but they have a decent team.  And finally, Buffalo beat Rutgers, who has yet to beat an FBS opponent and probably won’t.
I get that Rutgers is a Power 5 school.  But folks are making waaaay too much of this one result.  
Rutgers’ offense is terrible.  I mean, they are God-awful.  This is a team that’s scored just 65 points all season, that has completed less than 50% of its passes, and that’s rushed for exactly 3.7 yards/carry.  The Scarlet Knights are putting up just over 275 yards/game of total offense.  They run an ostensibly balanced scheme but average just 25 yards/game more passing than Army!
So okay.  Buffalo has a good team.  They beat EMU, and they beat Temple, and that’s good.  It’s great.  But everybody’s beaten Rutgers, and if you look at their schedule, that’s probably the way it’s gonna stay.
Final Thoughts
The weather for this game is expected to be a moderate 66° under mostly sunny skies with a slight breeze.  Buffalo doesn’t typically pack its stadium, but the team is off to a rocking start, and the Bulls are favored by more than a touchdown.  
Army Football 2018 vs. the Schedule: S&P+ after Week 4.  This, I think, explains the line.
In fact, the line opened at Buffalo (-6.5) but has since slid to Buffalo (-9).  I can see 6.5, though that’s on the high side of reasonable for a team without a strong home field advantage, but I wouldn’t lay 9 on the Bulls for any reason whatsoever.  This has been a back-and-forth series for years, and Army’s been improving steadily every week.  Maybe the Bulls win by 3 or 4, but I’ll be astonished if the margin is larger than that in either direction.
I know it's not the official patch, but
I couldn't resist.
Army will wear the 10th Mountain Division patch for this contest.  Kickoff is at noon.  Coverage is—thankfully—on CBS Sports.
Go Army!  Beat Buffalo!!!
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