Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Army Football Preview: at San Jose State

With the bye week in the rearview, Army Football turns its attention to the West Coast and San Jose State.  After five straight games against previously undefeated opponents, Saturday’s contest marks the first of the season in which the Black Knights will be clear, obvious, uncontested favorites over an ostensibly bad team.  That’s not a good thing, nor is it helpful that the game itself will take place nearly 3,000 miles from home in a distinctly unfamiliar stadium.
This is the very definition of a trap game.
It’s a good match-up, though, because it helps Army sell its brand out on the far coast, and in that, the San Jose Spartans did the Academy a favor by staging the contest at Levi Stadium.  Still, this is the kind of game that tests the focus of a young team. Army’s had a decent season so far, but they still stand just 3-2.  The Black Knights badly need a win this week to stay on the path towards bowl eligibility.


Army Black Knights
The story of the season so far has been the development of QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. and Army’s young offensive line.  Coming into the season, folks saw the returning depth at the skill positions and felt reassured.  But I don’t think a lot of observers adequately credited the youth Army was fielding up front.  Then we saw almost two full quarters of sloppy play against Duke, leading to the team’s worst loss against a non-Top 10 opponent in several years.  Since that first half at Duke, though, Army Football has improved noticeably in every game.  They beat Liberty handily, handed Hawaii their only loss, took Oklahoma to overtime, and followed that by knocking the snot out of would-be MAC champion Buffalo.  By halftime in the Buffalo game, Army’s offense looked as good as it ever has.

 Army currently stands 3rd in rushing with 308 yards/game.  They supplement this with an average 110 yards/game passing.  Hopkins is 25/51 for 551 yards passing (49%) with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.  That’s been good enough to add a new dimension to Army’s offense, but it leaves definite room for improvement.  Hopkins threw a bad pick in the first series at Buffalo, and anyway, you really want your quarterback to get up around 60% completion percentage if he’s gonna occasionally force changes in coverage.  Hopkins went 4/5 passing against Buffalo; he’ll need a few more weeks like that before defenses start paying legitimate attention to his arm.  It’s worth noting, too, that Army’s pass blocking has improved significantly this season.  That helps a lot.  

After 5 games, Army’s offense is scoring 27.4 points/game (87th).  The five-headed monster at fullback has led the way with 168 carries for 790 yards (4.7 yards/carry), fully 45% of the offense by snap count.  Team captain Darnell Woolfolk leads the way with 78 carries for 317 yards (4.1 yards/carry), but Calen Holt has the best average at 6.4 yards/carry.  Holt’s speed and ability to catch out of the backfield has added a game-changing dimension to the offensive scheme.  Between the passing game, Holt’s ability to take the occasional pitch outside, and the natural misdirection inherent in Army’s offense, Army has of late been able to run on anybody.  This is not a simple offense; these guys are coming at teams from a lot of different directions out of every formation that they run.
On defense, Army is allowing just 22 points/game (T-36th).  Considering the offenses they’ve faced, that’s excellent.  Army’s given up some big plays at times, but they’ve been excellent in goal line and short yardage situations.  That counts for a lot.  
The Black Knights rushing defense is a perfect example of why and how this defense succeeds.  The unit stands 36th in total rushing defense, having allowed just 125.6 yards/game and 6 total rushing touchdowns.  That’s good!  But they’re still giving up 4.9 yards/carry, meaning that teams are occasionally getting good chunks of yardage in the middle of the field.  But not many teams have the offensive consistency to drive the length of the field on just 5-yard chunk plays, and Army’s defense shows up big on 3rd and 4th down.  Opponents are converting just 26.2% on 3rd down and 14.3% on 4th down.  In this, we see Army playing complimentary football.  They keep their offense on the field, and they get the other guys off of it.  That’s how they win.
Last note is on field goals.  Army is just 1/4 kicking with 2 kicks blocked.  The team hasn’t even attempted a field goal two full weeks.  Eventually, that’s going to be a problem.

San Jose State Spartans
A number of folks have messaged me privately over the past few weeks to say, “Don’t sleep on San Jose State!  They have a big, talented D-Line, and they’ve hung tough with some very good teams despite going winless this season.”
It’s true.  The Spartans have a lot of talent.  They opened with a shootout loss to FCS UC Davis, got smoked on the road by Washington State, hung tough with #20 Oregon, took undefeated Hawaii to a 5th overtime before falling short, and then rallied in the 3rd quarter big-time before falling at home to Colorado State.  Up until the Colorado State game, the Spartans boasted one of the nation’s most productive rushing defenses, having given up just 3.4 yards/carry and 133 yards/game.  But the Rams ran hard at SJSU, carrying 45 times for a whopping 219 yards (4.9 yards/carry).  That’s a problem.

 P(wins) suggests that the Spartans ought to win about 4 games this season.  As of this week, though, they’re still looking for both victory and a football identity.  The stats suggest that the Spartans will get things turned around at some point.  Really, they’re due for a break-out game.  Despite their record, that makes them extremely dangerous.
Part of the problem is that it’s taken the Spartans some time to settle on a quarterback.  QB Montel Aaron started the year and has seen some time at various points all season.  Of late, though, he’s given way to QB Josh Love, who played almost the entirety of the last two games.  Love has gone 74/149 passing for 1,030 yards (49.7%) with 8 touchdowns against 5 interceptions.  He’s also been sacked 13 times, including 5 just last week against Colorado State.  Between them, Aaron and Love have collectively taken 22 sacks in 2018.  That’s a lot of sacks!  
SJSU’s running game isn’t great, but all those sacks make it look worse than it really is.  The Spartans’ top four rushers have carried 108 times for 350 yards (3.2 yards/carry).  That’s not a lot, nor is it a ton of production.  But it doesn’t look disastrous until we factor in the negative yardage from all those sacks, which takes their average all the way down to just 1.7 yards/carry.  
That’s God-awful.  
The Spartans actually run a fairly balanced attack, with almost exactly 50% passing and 50% rushing, but to the extent that they’ve been able to stay in games, it’s because they’ve had success in the passing game getting big plays.  SJSU is just 26/87 on 3rd down (29.9%) and 3/7 on 4th down (42.9%), but they have 3 receivers averaging more than 20 yards/catch and 3 more averaging at least 12 yards/catch.
Bottom line, this is a team that stops the run and throws over the top.  That’s a tough way to win if it’s all you can do, but it could potentially make them a bad matchup for Army.
Final note: the Spartans are not much better than the Black Knights at kicking field goals.  Kicker Bryce Crawford is 6/11 (54.5%) this season, though he’s made all of his extra points.  That’s worth watching considering the boom-or-bust nature of the Spartans’ offense.

Critical Matchups
One of these teams is liable to have a bad day on Saturday.  Given Army’s likely time-of-possession advantage, the Black Knights should be considered heavy favorites.  This assumes that they can get their running game going against that big Spartan D-Line.  Army has faced a number of big-strike offenses this season, and they’ve mostly done okay.  But their success hinges on playing complimentary football.  If the Black Knights turn the football over, or if they just wind up punting a lot, that opens the door to disaster.  
Army Football P(Wins) vs. 2018 Schedule: After the Bye Week
Army is extremely unlikely to hold SJSU’s big, talented wide receiving corps down for the entire game.  But if they can pound the rock, run up their time-of-possession, and let their defense get into attack mode so that they’re generating some hits on Love, they ought to go home happy.
SJSU is going to break out at some point this season.  Let’s don’t let it be this week.

Final Thoughts
The first line posted at Army (-17), but subsequent books opened at Army (-14).  That’s where it was when money started coming in.  It sounds insane to lay 14 on the Black Knights on the road, but it’s a bad sign that the Spartans let CSU run all over them at home just a week ago.  You can bet that OC Brent Davis and company watched tape closely.  CSU is not some pound-the-rock powerhouse, so whatever it was that the Rams saw in the Spartans’ rushing defense, I expect Army to attack it relentlessly.  Maybe this is why the early money has gone towards the Black Knights.  As of this writing, the line has Army (-14.5) with the vig pointing higher still.
The early weather forecast has temperatures in the lower 80s with decent sun, maybe 10 mph of wind, and mild humidity.  Ought to be a nice day for football.
As noted in the intro, the game will be at Levi Stadium, a neutral site that serves as home to the San Francisco 49ers.  I’ll be surprised if Army doesn’t put more fans into the stands than the Spartans, though I confess to being curious about attendance overall.  I don’t see how the 0-5 Spartans pull much of a crowd, but how will Army draw in California?  That answer may have bowl implications since bowl organizers much prefer to invite teams whose fan bases travel.
Army will wear the 7th Infantry Division patch.  Kickoff is set for 3:30 pm Eastern time, 12:30 Pacific.  ESPNU has the broadcast.
Go Army!  Beat San Jose State!!!
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