National Football Conference
NFC East: NY Giants. I’m picking the Giants primarily because the division hasn’t had a repeat winner since 2004 and a little bit because Philly’s offense has looked terrible this preseason. I’m expecting the Eagles to take a step back, and really, the Giants are the only team in division who might pick up the pieces.
Also: this Giants’ offense will be truly dynamic this year. Really, the defense only needs to be middle-of-the-pack, and they’re quite a bit better than that. And yeah, I’m a giant homer.
NFC North: Vikings. Despite some preseason injuries, I still think this is the team to beat in the NFC North. In fact, I don’t think it’s going to be all that close.
NFC South: Saints. A run-first team with Drew Brees at quarterback and an improving defense. That’s a good combination. Also: the Falcons are going to regress this year, especially on defense.
NFC West: L.A. Rams. These guys have to win after going all-in over the offseason. Plus, every part of this team is excellent. Really, they should bemuch better this year than they were last year, and they were pretty damned good last year.
Wild Cards: Eagles, Falcons.
Potential spoilers: Packers, Cardinals, 49ers. Y’all are sleeping on the Cardinals.
Middle of the Pack: Lions.
Dead Meat: Redskins, Cowboys, Bears, Panthers, Bucs, Seahawks.
American Football Conference
AFC East: Patriots. I would very much like to announce that the Tom Brady era is over, but the rest of the division is just not strong enough yet. I don’t think the Pats will be as good this year, but we won’t see the epic collapse until next year.
AFC North: Steelers. Similar logic to the above, but the Steelers have a bit more talent all the way around. For example, their O-Line is much better, they have a few truly excellent skill position players, and their defense is legit. Coach Tomlin, though, is not great in high-pressure situations.
AFC South: Texans. I don’t believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ ability to enjoy sustained regular season success. Plus, Houston QB DeShaun Watson really is that good. It’s also hard to pick against the long term regression of Houston’s defense.
AFC West: Chargers. Who else is going to win it? Oakland and Denver both look like epic regression candidates, and the Chiefs are starting a new quarterback. Maybe Mahommes will be good in time, but this particular year, I’m looking for him to throw more picks than touchdowns.
Wild Cards: Jaguars, Chiefs.
Potential spoilers: Ravens, Titans, Browns. Yes, the Browns. Their defense is terrific.
Middle of the Pack: Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts.
Dead Meat: Bills, Broncos, Raiders.
Super Bowl: L.A. Rams vs. L.A. Chargers.
Yes, it’s an all-Los Angeles Super Bowl for the hometown that doesn’t particularly care about football.
NFL Champion: L.A. Rams win big.
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