Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Army Football Preview: Miami-Ohio

After handling their business in California over the weekend, the Army Black Knights are finally back home on Saturday following a long three-game road trip.  Army faces a hungry, talented team from Miami-Ohio this week that badly needs a win.  In many ways, the Miami-Ohio RedHawks are archetypical of the kinds of teams that Army will face from here on out—strong on defense but inconsistent on offense.  This week’s contest therefore promises to be an important harbinger for the rest of the season.  
After six games, the Black Knights are 4-2 with FCS doormat Lafayette remaining on the schedule.  On top of everything else, a win this Saturday virtually assures bowl eligibility.

Army Black Knights
Army’s last home game was over a month ago.  In that time, the Black Knights have been nothing short of spectacular.  Army hung tough with the Sooners, taking them to overtime, then blasted Buffalo and San Jose State in succession.  It’s been a heady time.  After seven weeks, your Army Black Knights stand 2nd in rushing with 313.5 yards/game and 55th overall in scoring with an average 31.5 points/game.  They’re allowing just 18.8 points/game, good for 23rd overall, and though they haven’t thrown much, they’re still putting up just over 100 yards/game through the air.  
QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. has gotten better every week.  He’s currently 27/56 passing (48.2%) for 605 yards and 4 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.  That’s not bad, and aside from two last-ditch plays against Oklahoma, he’s done a good job of staying safe with the football.  As we noted last week, though, he needs a couple more high percentage completion games to improve his overall average.  Hopkins also leads the team rushing.  He’s carried 110 times for 496 yards (4.5 yards/carry) and 7 touchdowns.  As of this writing, Army is throwing about 12% of the time, and Hopkins is keeping on the ground not quite 25% of the time.  In terms of ball distribution, this is about in line with what we saw last season from Ahmad Bradshaw.

Though Army’s been gaining a bit more yardage per play via the Quarterback Keeper, the Fullback Dive continues to be the offense’s mainstay.  FB Darnell Woolfolk (3.9 yards/carry) has taken the majority of the tough, early-down carries up the middle, allowing FBs Connor Slomka (4.9 yards/carry) and Calen Holt (6.2 yards/carry) to get downhill in later, more varied down and distance situations.  In fact, Army’s been running a five-fullback rotation by way of keeping everybody healthy, and that’s absolutely been working.  Mostly what we’ve seen is teams loading the middle to stop Woolfolk, creating openings for Hopkins or one of the slotbacks.  Hopkins in particular has gotten better at finding those holes off-tackle or on the Quarterback Follow, but SBs Kell Walker, Jordan Asberry, and Fred Cooper have all had big runs off the pitch or out a read-option look from the shotgun.  Notably, last week’s game featured Walker as the team’s primary outside threat while Asberry seems a little more comfortable getting down the field.  Walker now has 36 carries for 166 yards (4.6 yards/carry) along with 7 receptions for 130 yards (18.6 yards/catch).  Asberry has 4 catches for 88 yards, two of which went for touchdowns in just the past two weeks.
Army’s defense has been much better against the run over the past two weeks, but they’ve been good in short yardage situations all season.  As of this writing, the team has allowed 157 rushes for 664 yards (4.2 yards/carry) with 6 rushing touchdowns.  With that, the Black Knights are allowing just 110.7 yards/game on the ground.  That’s not quite elite, but it is well into the upper third of FBS college football.  Add in the team’s 12 sacks—and its generally improving pressure packages—and we begin to see just how this unit becomes dangerous.
The Black Knights make most of their money on 3rd and 4th downs.  Army’s offense is an outstanding 57/98 (55.1%) on 3rd down while allowing opponents to convert just 15/53 (28.3%).  They are an NCAA-leading 19/21 (90.5%) on 4th down while allowing opponents to convert just 1/7 (14.3%).  Army’s offense is only gaining 5.5 yards/play, but they’re very consistent getting those 5.5 yards, and that allows them to hold the ball and dominate the clock.
Final note: Army successfully kicked a routine-looking mid-range field goal last week.  This was an important milestone for a unit that’s struggled to find consistency.
Miami-Ohio RedHawks
The Miami-Ohio RedHawks (3-4, 3-1 MAC-East) have started slow but finished fast several times over the past few seasons.  In 2017, the team finished 5-7, just missing a bowl game, and if 2018 opened with a bit more promise, the team still needs to improve to actually make good on that promise.  The RedHawks began 2018 with three straight losses to Marshall, undefeated Cincinnati, and Minnesota but then rebounded to beat MAC bottom-feeder Bowling Green.  Miami then dropped a heartbreaker to Western Michigan before beating the holy Hell out of both Akron and Kent State.
Miami’s problem, really, has been on offense.  After 7 games, they stand 97th in total passing with 205.7 yards/game and 87th in rushing with 154.9 yards/game.  That’s not terrible, but it’s not indicative of a specific identity, either.  Similarly, Miami is allowing just 24 points/game (52nd), and that’s good, but they’re scoring just 30 (63rd).  They’re in plus territory on points-differential overall, but that’s because they beat bad teams badly.  They haven’t yet been good enough to get over the hump against a legitimate quality opponent.

Senior QB Gus Ragland has taken every snap.  After seven games, he is 130/211 passing for 1,440 yards (61.6%) with 10 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.  He’s also an occasional running threat.  Ragland has carried 40 times this season for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns (2.2 yards/carry, inclusive of 5 sacks).  The past few games have seen the Redhawks’ offense utilize two primary running backs, Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young.  Smith seems to be more of an every-down back, carrying 72 times for 342 yards (4.8 yards/carry) with 2 touchdowns, while Young is the team’s big-play threat.  Young only has 23 carries, but he’s run for a whopping 212 yards (9.2 yards/carry!) and 3 touchdowns.  He also has 24 catches for 142 yards (5.9 yards/reception) and 2 additional touchdowns.  I haven’t gotten to watch Miami-Ohio this season, but from that, I’m guessing that Young is their 3rd down back.
The RedHawks have a talented stable of wide receivers with 6 separate guys averaging at least 12 yards/catch.  WR Jack Sorenson leads the group with 27 catches for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Young is second out of the backfield by number of receptions, but WRs Luke Mayock and James Gardner both have 12 catches apiece, and Dominique Robinson and Andrew Homer have 9 and 10, respectively.  Bottom line, this is a team that spreads the ball around.  Ragland’s first look might be down the field, but he’s thrown just over a quarter of his passes to guys coming out of the backfield this season, so he’s obviously comfortable throwing screens and check-downs as well.
I feel like I say this every week, but this time it’s really true: Miami-Ohio is surprisingly good against the run.  On the season, their defense has allowed 263 carries for just 866 yards (3.3 yards/carry; 123.7 yards/game) and 7 touchdowns.  If that sounds familiar, it is.  Buffalo and SJSU were both allowing between 3.3 to 3.4 yards/carry, and both did a good job, at least initially, of bottling up the Fullback Dive.  Miami got gashed pretty good on the ground by Minnesota, and they let Cincinnati grind on them, but nobody else has done much.  Based on the fact that they also have 19 sacks this season, I’m gonna say that their D-Line is very good.
But again, it’s all about consistency.  Miami is 38/103 on 3rd down (36.90%) while allowing opponents to convert 39/100 3rd downs (39%) against them.  It’s even worse on 4th down.  The RedHawks are 7/14        (50%) while allowing opponents to go 6/7 (85.70%).  It’s tough to win like that without a legitimately explosive offense, and the RedHawks average just 5.5 yards/play.  If you’re averaging 5.5 yards/play, you need a mack-daddy running game, and that’s not what they have.
Key Matchups
This isn’t all that different from what we’ve seen these last few weeks, with the added twist that the RedHawks throw so much to their running backs coming out of the backfield.

Army P(Wins) vs. the Schedule: After Week 7
Army Linebackers vs. Miami Running Backs. The RedHawks aren’t super-consistent on 3rd down, and Army can keep it that way by preventing them from getting into 3rd-and-short.  That means stopping the run and—critically—stopping those quick dump-off passes to the running backs.  If the Black Knights can do that, the rest of the RedHawks’ offense is probably not consistent enough to keep the chains moving.
Moreover, this RedHawk offense is about 55% run with another almost 10% quick catches out of the backfield.  Stopping these backs stops more than three-fifths of what these guys are trying to do offensively.  That’s huge.
Army O-Line vs. Miami D-Line.  Teams that have beaten Miami-Ohio badly are teams that have been able to get their running games going.  Minnesota got 141 yards rushing on 33 carries out of true freshman RB Bryce Williams, and they won 26-3.  Similarly, Cincinnati got 191 yards on 47 carries from a pair of backs.  That’s just 4 yards/carry, but it kept their offense on the field, and that powered a 21-0 beat-down.

Final Thoughts
An initial line was posted at Army (-12.5), but the first books opened at Army (-8).  As of this writing, the line has slipped to Miami-Ohio (+7.5).  Notably, though, ESPN’s FPI has Army by almost 9.5 before considering home field advantage, and they’ve been pretty accurate this season—much more than S&P+, anyway.  Really, Army ought to win handily assuming they can get the Dive going, but I don’t know that I would lay 8.  I’d probably just pass this game since it could easily go down to the wire.
As of this writing, the forecast is calling for showers with temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s and 10 to 20 mph of wind.  Alas, we might see some wet balls out there, and that’s occasionally led to chaos from this Army team.  Certainly, I think it makes downfield passing tougher—though far from impossible.  The Over/Under on this game currently sits at just 46.5, and I think I’d still probably take the Under.
My friend Sid put this up.  He's a retired SF Chaplain, & this is Sunday's sermon.
Kickoff is at noon on CBS Sports.  It's Homecoming this week, and Army will wear the 101st Airborne Division patch.
Go Army!  Beat Miami-Ohio!!!
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