College Football Preview: What to Watch in Week 5

I’m so ready for this weekend.  This week has featured everything that I hate--fights with my wife, a pulled hamstring, abundant rain and flooding, and a plethora of high-stress / high-impact / quick turnaround-type work things.  And that’s only the stuff that has happened to me.

Yay?

Waiting for the train this morning, my friend said, “So okay, tell me something good.”  I immediately went to college football because that’s the only part of our national public life that’s actually working.  Everything else is a zoo from which I would very much like to escape.

These are the games I’ll be following.  This list is culled from 506 Sports.

Friday, September 28

8:00 PM - Memphis @ Tulane (ESPN2)

9:00 PM - UCLA @ Colorado (FS1)

Neither of these games have overmuch to recommend them save that they’re college football on a Friday night.  I’m marginally more interested in Memphis at Tulane, but I don’t know that I necessarily think it’s gonna be much of a game.  ESPN has the Tigers favored by 14.

Doubt I’m gonna stay up long enough to watch much of the late game.

Saturday, September 29

12:00 PM - Army @ Buffalo (CBS Sports)

Even if you’re not an Army fan, this is one of the best games of the day.  Coming off their near miss in Norman, Oklahoma, the Black Knights face their fifth undefeated team in a row.   Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense is on fire, making the Bulls arguably the best team in the MAC.

I previewed this game at some length on Tuesday.  Interestingly, the line opened at Buffalo (-6.5), moved all the way up to Buffalo (-9), and has since rebounded to Buffalo (-7.5).  The Over/Under started at 52 but has gone all the way up to 55.

Army’s been a dead-nut Under team this season, even against elite offenses like Hawaii and Oklahoma, so I don’t know what’s up with taking the Over in this spot.  I’m also not sure what the sharps saw in the initial betting line, but the early betting, usually more professional gamblers than amateurs, leaned heavily towards Buffalo.

I don’t know if the Black Knights are gonna win, obviously, but they have a decent chance.  Defense travels, and Army’s been getting better every week.  I don’t bet on sports, but I’d definitely take Army and the points.  Coming off the close loss in Oklahoma, I think Army’s O-Line goes on the attack this weekend.

Game 📋 for the road Saturday at Buffalo.#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/h6EutpVr55

— Army WP Football (@ArmyWP_Football) September 27, 2018

12:00 PM - Syracuse @ #3 Clemson (ABC)

This looks like a great game between two undefeated teams.  Not looking for Syracuse to necessarily win, but they did last year, and they’ve been good to this point in 2018.

The line is Syracuse (+20), and I could easily see them covering.

12:00 PM - Indiana @ Rutgers (BTN)

Can Rutgers win another game?  

I wouldn’t bet on it.  The Hoosiers are favored by more than two touchdowns.

12:00 PM - Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech (ACC RSNs)

The guys on SiriusXM’s ESPNU said on Wednesday that they think GT Coach Paul Johnson is probably on the hot seat.  If he loses to Bowling Green at home, that may well prove to be true.

The Yellow Jackets are favored by nearly three touchdowns.

3:30 PM - Tennessee @ #2 Georgia (CBS)

Alas, the Vols look like SEC roadkill.  They’re gonna get smoked.

I’ve no idea what the line is, but take the Bulldogs to cover.

3:30 PM - Pittsburgh @ #13 UCF (ESPNU)

UCF needs Power 5 wins to bolster its record.  They’re favored by two touchdowns, but if they really want a chance to make some noise in the postseason, they need to win BIG.

The line opened at UCF (-15) but has slid towards Pitt.  That’s a mistake.  I’ll take the Knights to make a statement at home.

3:30 PM - Cincinnati @ Connecticut (CBS Sports)

Can UConn win another game?  QB David Pindell is 75/113 passing for 796 yards and 7 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.  Unfortunately, his defense is giving up an average of 664 yards/game.  

664 yards!  Holy smokes!!!

The Bearcats are favored by 17.5, but somehow the Over/Under has dropped from 60 to 58.

As part of our Huskies & Heroes celebration this Saturday at @PWStadium, service members and veterans can receive a complimentary ticket to @UConnFootball vs. Cincinnati by visiting https://t.co/rsw6UH9cii. #HuskyHeroes | #BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/vZOV9JaXEL

— UConn Huskies (@UConnHuskies) September 27, 2018

3:30 PM - Coastal Carolina @ Troy (ESPN3)

This week, USA Today predicted Army vs. Coastal Carolina in a bowl game in early December.  The Chaunticleers are 3-1 and currently sit atop the Sun Belt (East).  But giant-killer Troy is still favored by 14.

4:00 PM - Nevada @ Air Force (ESPNEWS)

Air Force is a 5-point home favorite in a game that’s not expected to feature a lot of defense.  Interestingly, QB Isaiah Sanders is listed as the Zoomies’ starter, not Arion Worthman.  Haven’t watched an Air Force game yet this year, but that amazes me.

I’ll take the Wolf Pack to cover.  The game itself will probably go to triple-overtime.

6:00 PM - Florida @ #23 Mississippi State (ESPN)

I don’t care much about either team, but this is probably the best SEC matchup of the day.  Miss. State is an 8-point favorite, but I can’t imagine the Gators spending too many more weeks in the SEC basement.  There’s just too much talent on that team.

7:00 PM - Virginia Tech @ #22 Duke (ESPN2)

This is another Best Game of the Day that feels a little too far under the radar.  The line opened at Duke (-3) but has slid all the way to Duke (-5).  When was the last time that happened?  

Gimme Duke to cover.  You ask me, the Blue Devils have something to prove here.

📽 study@qharris18 breaks down 3️⃣ plays from his performance at Baylor pic.twitter.com/9eSsgnUpl7

— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) September 27, 2018

7:30 PM - #4 Ohio State @ #9 Penn State (ABC)

7:30 PM - #7 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame (NBC)

These are the Big TV marque games of the day.  I’m a little more interested in OSU vs Penn State, but all of these teams have something to play for.  This is Penn State’s chance to make its case on the national stage.  Conversely, a loss by OSU or Notre Dame basically knocks a potential contender out of the national title race.

I’d kind’a like to see someone knock the Irish out of the spotlight, but beyond that, I don’t much care who wins.